The prediction of cyclic proximal humerus fracture fixation failure by various bone density measures.

Fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures has remained challenging, but may be improved by careful pre-operative planning. The aim of this study was to investigate how well the failure of locking plate fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures can be predicted by bone density measures assessed with currently available clinical imaging (realistic case) and a higher resolution and quality modality (theoretical best-case). Various density measures were correlated to experimentally assessed number of cycles to construct failure of plated unstable low-density proximal humerus fractures (N = 18). The influence of density evaluation technique was investigated by comparing local (peri-implant) versus global evaluation regions; HR-pQCT-based versus clinical QCT-based image data; ipsilateral versus contralateral side; and bone mineral content (BMC) versus bone mineral density (BMD). All investigated density measures were significantly correlated with the experimental cycles to failure. The best performing clinically feasible parameter was the QCT-based BMC of the contralateral articular cap region, providing significantly better correlation (R2  = 0.53) compared to a previously proposed clinical density measure (R2  = 0.30). BMC had consistently, but not significantly stronger correlations with failure than BMD. The overall best results were obtained with the ipsilateral HR-pQCT-based local BMC (R2  = 0.74) that may be used for implant optimization. Strong correlations were found between the corresponding density measures of the two CT image sources, as well as between the two sides. Future studies should investigate if BMC of the contralateral articular cap region could provide improved prediction of clinical fixation failure compared to previously proposed measures.