Modelling the driving forces of the municipal solid waste generation in touristic islands. A case study of the Balearic Islands (2000-2030).

The improvement of municipal solid waste (MSW) management in touristic islands has not been sufficiently studied, and by using the Spanish Balearics as a case study, a hybrid methodology has been developed which: (i) identifies the three most influential variables (driving forces) of the MSW generation system through an econometric model based on official historical data for a given period (2000-2014), (ii) develops a System Dynamics (SD) model of the evolution of MSW generation in this archipelago based on the same data and time period, and (iii) forecasts the performance of the MSW management system for a future period (2015-2030). Six different scenarios are considered with varying assumptions, objectives and management policies, while applying Scenario Analysis to the SD model developed. The results show that by maintaining the current policies ("business as usual" BAU scenario) it will be impossible to meet the goals set by the Regional and the Spanish National Plans based on the European MSW Directive. However, by implementing the improvements proposed in the simulated alternative scenarios, the model predicts that by 2030, generation of MSW will have increased by 15% compared to 2014, mainly due to the effect of the Tourist Population which is 37.5% higher than the Resident Population. In addition, for the most optimistic scenario, the amount of MSW sent to landfills would decrease by 40%, and selective collection would increase by 30%, compared to 2014.