| Literature DB >> 29440932 |
Ning Pu1,2, Jianang Li1,2, Yaolin Xu1,2, Wanling Lee1,2, Yuan Fang1,2, Xu Han1,2, Guochao Zhao1,2, Lei Zhang1,2, Abulimiti Nuerxiati1,2, Hanlin Yin1,2, Wenchuan Wu1,2, Wenhui Lou1,2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prognosis of pancreatic carcinoma (PC) remains poor and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th staging system for survival prediction in PC patients after curative resection is still limited. Thus, the aim of this study is to refine a valuable prognostic model and novel staging system for PC with curative resection.Entities:
Keywords: AJCC; decision curve analysis; lymph node ratio; nomogram; pancreatic head carcinoma; prognosis
Year: 2018 PMID: 29440932 PMCID: PMC5804271 DOI: 10.2147/CMAR.S157940
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Manag Res ISSN: 1179-1322 Impact factor: 3.989
Correlations between LNR and clinicopathological characteristics of patients with resected pancreatic head carcinoma in the primary cohort
| Variables | SEER cohort
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
| LNR £ 0.092 (No. of patients = 1565) | LNR > 0.092 (No. of patients = 1893) | ||
| Age (years) | |||
| <70 | 898 | 1158 | |
| ≥70 | 667 | 735 | |
| Gender | < | ||
| Male | 737 | 1023 | |
| Female | 828 | 870 | |
| Grade | < | ||
| Well differentiation | 195 | 173 | |
| Moderate differentiation | 855 | 921 | |
| Poor differentiation | 515 | 799 | |
| Liver metastasis | |||
| Yes | 21 | 47 | |
| No | 1544 | 1846 | |
| Lung metastasis | |||
| Yes | 5 | 16 | |
| No | 1560 | 1877 | |
| T classification | < | ||
| T1 | 317 | 198 | |
| T2 | 791 | 1004 | |
| T3 | 198 | 347 | |
| T4 | 259 | 344 | |
| N classification | < | ||
| N0 | 988 | 0 | |
| N1 | 566 | 891 | |
| N2 | 11 | 1002 | |
| M classification | < | ||
| M0 | 1529 | 1788 | |
| M1 | 36 | 105 | |
| TNM staging system | < | ||
| I | 717 | 0 | |
| II | 553 | 690 | |
| III | 259 | 1098 | |
| IV | 36 | 105 | |
| Regional lymph nodes surgery | < | ||
| None | 32 | 27 | |
| 1–3 | 79 | 43 | |
| ≥4 | 1454 | 1823 | |
| Surgery | 0.441 | ||
| PPPD | 181 | 188 | |
| Whipple | 1092 | 1338 | |
| Total pancreatectomy | 198 | 255 | |
| Extended PD | 94 | 112 | |
Note: Bold figures indicate statistical significant P<0.05.
Abbreviations: LNR, lymph node ratio; PD, pancreatoduodenectomy; PPPD, pylorus preserving pancreatoduodenectomy; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results; TNM, tumor, node, metastasis.
Univariate and multivariate analyses of prognostic factors associated with overall survival of patients with resected pancreatic head carcinoma in the primary cohort
| Variables | Overall survival
| |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of patients (N = 3458) | Univariate ( | Multivariate ( | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | |
| Age (years) | < | < | 1.331 (1.223–1.448) | |
| <70 | 2056 | |||
| ≥70 | 1402 | |||
| Gender | 0.088 | |||
| Male | 1760 | |||
| Female | 1698 | |||
| Grade | < | < | 1.356 (1.269–1.450) | |
| Well differentiation | 368 | |||
| Moderate differentiation | 1776 | |||
| Poor differentiation | 1314 | |||
| Liver metastasis | < | 0.097 | 1.387 (0.943–2.042) | |
| Yes | 68 | |||
| No | 3390 | |||
| Lung metastasis | 0.701 | 1.111 (0.650–1.900) | ||
| Yes | 21 | |||
| No | 3437 | |||
| LNR | < | < | 1.563 (1.376–1.776) | |
| ≤0.092 | 1565 | |||
| >0.092 | 1893 | |||
| T classification | < | < | 1.152 (1.086–1.222) | |
| T1 | 515 | |||
| T2 | 1795 | |||
| T3 | 545 | |||
| T4 | 603 | |||
| N classification | < | 0.545 | 1.037 (0.922–1.166) | |
| N0 | 988 | |||
| N1 | 1457 | |||
| N2 | 1013 | |||
| M classification | < | 0.097 | 1.343 (0.948–1.902) | |
| M0 | 3317 | |||
| M1 | 141 | |||
| TNM staging system | < | 0.396 | 1.052 (0.935–1.184) | |
| I | 717 | |||
| II | 1243 | |||
| III | 1357 | |||
| IV | 141 | |||
| Regional lymph nodes surgery | 0.891 | |||
| None | 59 | |||
| 1–3 | 122 | |||
| ≥4 | 3277 | |||
| Surgery | 0.134 | |||
| PPPD | 369 | |||
| Whipple | 2430 | |||
| Total pancreatectomy | 453 | |||
| Extended PD | 206 | |||
Abbreviations: LNR, lymph node ratio; PD, pancreatoduodenectomy; PPPD, pylorus preserving pancreatoduodenectomy; TNM; tumor, node, metastasis.
Figure 1Kaplan–Meier survival curves for patients according to LNR.
Notes: Patients with LNR larger than 0.092 were inclined to significantly poorer OS in the primary cohort (A) and validation cohort (B). P values were determined by the log-rank test.
Abbreviations: LNR, lymph node ratio; OS, overall survival.
Figure 2Prognostic nomogram, calibration curves, and DCA.
Notes: The nomogram predicts 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in patients with pancreatic head carcinoma (A). The calibration curves predict OS at 1 year (B), 3 years (C), and 5 years (D) in the primary cohort and at 1 year (E) and 3 years (F) in the validation cohort. The nomogram-predicted OS is plotted on the x axis, and the actually observed OS is plotted on the y axis. DCA depicts the clinical net benefit in pairwise comparisons across the different models. The formulated nomogram is compared with the AJCC 8th staging system in terms of 1- (G), 3- (H), and 5-year (I) OS in the primary cohort and 1- (J) and 3-year (K) OS in the validation cohort. On DCA, the nomogram showed superior net benefit with a wider range of threshold probabilities compared with AJCC 8th staging system.
Abbreviations: AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer; DCA, decision curve analysis; LNR, lymph node ratio; OS, overall survival.
Figure 3Kaplan–Meier survival curves for patients according to the AJCC 8th staging system.
Notes: The discrimination between stage I, II, III, and IV diseases was distributed by the AJCC 8th staging system in the primary cohort (A) and validation cohort (B). P values were determined by the log-rank test.
Abbreviation: AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer.
Figure 4Kaplan–Meier survival curves for patients according to the formulated nomogram staging system.
Notes: The discrimination between stage I, II, III, and IV diseases was distributed by the formulated nomogram staging system in the primary cohort (A) and validation cohort (B). P values were determined by the log-rank test.
Correlations between LNR and clinicopathological characteristics of patients with resected pancreatic head carcinoma in the validation cohort
| Variables | SEER cohort
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
| LNR £ 0.092 (no. of patients = 762) | LNR > 0.092 (no. of patients = 922) | ||
| Age (years) | 0.145 | ||
| <70 | 452 | 579 | |
| ≥70 | 310 | 343 | |
| Gender | |||
| Male | 360 | 509 | |
| Female | 402 | 413 | |
| Grade | < | ||
| Well differentiation | 94 | 88 | |
| Moderate differentiation | 432 | 456 | |
| Poor differentiation | 236 | 378 | |
| Liver metastasis | 0.127 | ||
| Yes | 11 | 23 | |
| No | 751 | 899 | |
| Lung metastasis | |||
| Yes | 0 | 9 | |
| No | 762 | 913 | |
| T classification | < | ||
| T1 | 134 | 102 | |
| T2 | 382 | 491 | |
| T3 | 96 | 167 | |
| T4 | 150 | 162 | |
| N classification | < | ||
| N0 | 473 | 0 | |
| N1 | 284 | 468 | |
| N2 | 5 | 454 | |
| M classification | < | ||
| M0 | 747 | 870 | |
| M1 | 15 | 52 | |
| TNM staging system | < | ||
| I | 335 | 0 | |
| II | 262 | 362 | |
| III | 150 | 508 | |
| IV | 15 | 52 | |
| Regional lymph nodes surgery | |||
| None | 16 | 15 | |
| 1–3 | 35 | 21 | |
| ≥4 | 711 | 886 | |
| Surgery | 0.616 | ||
| PPPD | 85 | 86 | |
| Whipple | 533 | 657 | |
| Total pancreatectomy | 100 | 129 | |
| Extended PD | 44 | 50 | |
Note: Bold figures indicate statistical significant P<0.05.
Abbreviations: LNR, lymph node ratio; PD, pancreatoduodenectomy; PPPD, pylorus preserving pancreatoduodenectomy; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results; TNM, tumor, node, metastasis.
Univariate and multivariate analyses of prognostic factors associated with overall survival of patients with resected pancreatic head carcinoma in the validation cohort
| Variables | Overall survival
| |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of patients (N = 1684) | Univariate ( | Multivariate ( | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | |
| Age (years) | < | < | 1.338 (1.184–1.511) | |
| <70 | 1031 | |||
| ≥70 | 653 | |||
| Gender | 0.257 | |||
| Male | 869 | |||
| Female | 815 | |||
| Grade | < | < | 1.408 (1.279–1.550) | |
| Well differentiation | 182 | |||
| Moderate differentiation | 888 | |||
| Poor differentiation | 614 | |||
| Liver metastasis | 0.987 | 1.005 (0.585–1.724) | ||
| Yes | 34 | |||
| No | 1650 | |||
| Lung metastasis | 0.800 | 0.904 (0.416–1.967) | ||
| Yes | 9 | |||
| No | 1675 | |||
| LNR | < | < | 1.478 (1.237–1.766) | |
| ≤0.092 | 762 | |||
| >0.092 | 922 | |||
| T classification | < | 1.161 (1.065–1.266) | ||
| T1 | 236 | |||
| T2 | 873 | |||
| T3 | 263 | |||
| T4 | 312 | |||
| N classification | < | 0.128 | 1.139 (0.963–1.348) | |
| N0 | 473 | |||
| N1 | 752 | |||
| N2 | 459 | |||
| M classification | < | 2.085 (1.274–3.412) | ||
| M0 | 1617 | |||
| M1 | 67 | |||
| TNM staging system | < | 0.942 | 0.994 (0.838–1.178) | |
| I | 335 | |||
| II | 624 | |||
| III | 658 | |||
| IV | 67 | |||
| Regional lymph nodes surgery | 0.817 | |||
| None | 31 | |||
| 1–3 | 56 | |||
| ≥4 | 1597 | |||
| Surgery | 0.150 | |||
| PPPD | 171 | |||
| Whipple | 1190 | |||
| Total pancreatectomy | 229 | |||
| Extended PD | 94 | |||
Abbreviations: LNR, lymph node ratio; PD, pancreatoduodenectomy; PPPD, pylorus preserving pancreatoduodenectomy; TNM, tumor, node, metastasis.