Ivan Savin1, Ksenia Ershova2, Nataliya Kurdyumova1, Olga Ershova1, Oleg Khomenko3, Gleb Danilov1, Michael Shifrin1, Vladimir Zelman4. 1. Burdenko Neurosurgery Institute, 16 4th Tverskaya-Yamskaya Street, Moscow 125047, Russia. 2. Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Skolkovo Innovation Center, Building 3, Moscow 143026, Russia; Department of Anesthesiology, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, 1975 Zonal Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90033, USA. Electronic address: ksenia.ershova@skolkovotech.ru. 3. Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Skolkovo Innovation Center, Building 3, Moscow 143026, Russia. 4. Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Skolkovo Innovation Center, Building 3, Moscow 143026, Russia; Department of Anesthesiology, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, 1975 Zonal Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90033, USA.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To define the incidence of healthcare-associated ventriculitis and meningitis (HAVM) in the neuro-ICU and to identify HAVM risk factors using tree-based machine learning (ML) algorithms. METHODS: An observational cohort study was conducted in Russia from 2010 to 2017, and included high-risk neuro-ICU patients. We utilized relative risk analysis, regressions, and ML to identify factors associated with HAVM development. RESULTS: 2286 patients of all ages were included, 216 of them had HAVM. The cumulative incidence of HAVM was 9.45% [95% CI 8.25-10.65]. The incidence of EVD-associated HAVM was 17.2 per 1000 EVD-days or 4.3% [95% CI 3.47-5.13] per 100 patients. Combining all three methods, we selected four important factors contributing to HAVM development: EVD, craniotomy, superficial surgical site infections after neurosurgery, and CSF leakage. The ML models performed better than regressions. CONCLUSION: We first reported HAVM incidence in a neuro-ICU in Russia. We showed that tree-based ML is an effective approach to study risk factors because it enables the identification of nonlinear interaction across factors. We suggest that the number of found risk factors and the duration of their presence in patients should be reduced to prevent HAVM.
PURPOSE: To define the incidence of healthcare-associated ventriculitis and meningitis (HAVM) in the neuro-ICU and to identify HAVM risk factors using tree-based machine learning (ML) algorithms. METHODS: An observational cohort study was conducted in Russia from 2010 to 2017, and included high-risk neuro-ICU patients. We utilized relative risk analysis, regressions, and ML to identify factors associated with HAVM development. RESULTS: 2286 patients of all ages were included, 216 of them had HAVM. The cumulative incidence of HAVM was 9.45% [95% CI 8.25-10.65]. The incidence of EVD-associated HAVM was 17.2 per 1000 EVD-days or 4.3% [95% CI 3.47-5.13] per 100 patients. Combining all three methods, we selected four important factors contributing to HAVM development: EVD, craniotomy, superficial surgical site infections after neurosurgery, and CSF leakage. The ML models performed better than regressions. CONCLUSION: We first reported HAVM incidence in a neuro-ICU in Russia. We showed that tree-based ML is an effective approach to study risk factors because it enables the identification of nonlinear interaction across factors. We suggest that the number of found risk factors and the duration of their presence in patients should be reduced to prevent HAVM.
Authors: Lisa M Mayer; Jeffrey R Strich; Sameer S Kadri; Michail S Lionakis; Nicholas G Evans; D Rebecca Prevots; Emily E Ricotta Journal: Open Forum Infect Dis Date: 2022-08-03 Impact factor: 4.423
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