N Fernández-Hidalgo1, I Ferreria-González2, J R Marsal3, A Ribera4, M L Aznar5, A de Alarcón6, E García-Cabrera7, J Gálvez-Acebal8, G Sánchez-Espín9, J M Reguera-Iglesias10, J De La Torre-Lima11, J M Lomas12, C Hidalgo-Tenorio13, N Vallejo14, B Miranda15, A Santos-Ortega15, M A Castro16, P Tornos15, D García-Dorado15, B Almirante1. 1. Servei de Malalties Infeccioses, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Spanish Network for the Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI RD12/0015), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain. 2. Unitat d'Epidemiologia, Servei de Cardiologia, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain. Electronic address: nachoferreira@secardiologia.es. 3. Unitat d'Epidemiologia, Servei de Cardiologia, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain; Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Lleida-Pirineus, IDIAP Jordi Gol, Lleida, Spain. 4. Unitat d'Epidemiologia, Servei de Cardiologia, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain. 5. Servei de Malalties Infeccioses, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 6. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Microbiología Clínica y Medicina Preventiva, Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla (IBIS), Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío/CSIC/Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain; Grupo para el Estudio de las Infecciones Cardiovasculares de la Sociedad Andaluza de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Spain. 7. Grupo para el Estudio de las Infecciones Cardiovasculares de la Sociedad Andaluza de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Spain. 8. Spanish Network for the Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI RD12/0015), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Grupo para el Estudio de las Infecciones Cardiovasculares de la Sociedad Andaluza de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Spain; Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Microbiología Clínica y Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena, Sevilla, Spain; Departamento de Medicina, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain. 9. Unidad de Gestión Clínica del Corazón, Instituto de Investigación Biomédica de Málaga (BIMA), Hospital Universitario Virgen de la Victoria, Málaga, Spain. 10. Grupo para el Estudio de las Infecciones Cardiovasculares de la Sociedad Andaluza de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Spain; Servicio de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Regional Universitario de Málaga, Málaga, Spain. 11. Grupo para el Estudio de las Infecciones Cardiovasculares de la Sociedad Andaluza de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Spain; Grupo de Enfermedades Infecciosas de la Unidad de Medicina Interna, Hospital Costa del Sol, Marbella, Málaga, Spain. 12. Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Lleida-Pirineus, IDIAP Jordi Gol, Lleida, Spain; Unidad de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospitales Juan Ramón Jiménez-Infanta Elena, Huelva, Spain. 13. Grupo para el Estudio de las Infecciones Cardiovasculares de la Sociedad Andaluza de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Spain; Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario Virgen de las Nieves, Granada, Spain. 14. Servicio de Cardiología, Grupo de Trabajo de Endocarditis Infecciosa, Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Barcelona, Spain. 15. Servei de Cardiologia, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain. 16. Servei de Cirurgia Cardíaca, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To simplify and optimize the ability of EuroSCORE I and II to predict early mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis (IE). METHODS: Multicentre retrospective study (n = 775). Simplified scores, eliminating irrelevant variables, and new specific scores, adding specific IE variables, were created. The performance of the original, recalibrated and specific EuroSCOREs was assessed by Brier score, C-statistic and calibration plot in bootstrap samples. The Net Reclassification Index was quantified. RESULTS: Recalibrated scores including age, previous cardiac surgery, critical preoperative state, New York Heart Association >I, and emergent surgery (EuroSCORE I and II); renal failure and pulmonary hypertension (EuroSCORE I); and urgent surgery (EuroSCORE II) performed better than the original EuroSCOREs (Brier original and recalibrated: EuroSCORE I: 0.1770 and 0.1667; EuroSCORE II: 0.2307 and 0.1680). Performance improved with the addition of fistula, staphylococci and mitral location (EuroSCORE I and II) (Brier specific: EuroSCORE I 0.1587, EuroSCORE II 0.1592). Discrimination improved in specific models (C-statistic original, recalibrated and specific: EuroSCORE I: 0.7340, 0.7471 and 0.7728; EuroSCORE II: 0.7442, 0.7423 and 0.7700). Calibration improved in both EuroSCORE I models (intercept 0.295, slope 0.829 (original); intercept -0.094, slope 0.888 (recalibrated); intercept -0.059, slope 0.925 (specific)) but only in specific EuroSCORE II model (intercept 2.554, slope 1.114 (original); intercept -0.260, slope 0.703 (recalibrated); intercept -0.053, slope 0.930 (specific)). Net Reclassification Index was 5.1% and 20.3% for the specific EuroSCORE I and II. CONCLUSIONS: The use of simplified EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II models in IE with the addition of specific variables may lead to simpler and more accurate models.
OBJECTIVE: To simplify and optimize the ability of EuroSCORE I and II to predict early mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis (IE). METHODS: Multicentre retrospective study (n = 775). Simplified scores, eliminating irrelevant variables, and new specific scores, adding specific IE variables, were created. The performance of the original, recalibrated and specific EuroSCOREs was assessed by Brier score, C-statistic and calibration plot in bootstrap samples. The Net Reclassification Index was quantified. RESULTS: Recalibrated scores including age, previous cardiac surgery, critical preoperative state, New York Heart Association >I, and emergent surgery (EuroSCORE I and II); renal failure and pulmonary hypertension (EuroSCORE I); and urgent surgery (EuroSCORE II) performed better than the original EuroSCOREs (Brier original and recalibrated: EuroSCORE I: 0.1770 and 0.1667; EuroSCORE II: 0.2307 and 0.1680). Performance improved with the addition of fistula, staphylococci and mitral location (EuroSCORE I and II) (Brier specific: EuroSCORE I 0.1587, EuroSCORE II 0.1592). Discrimination improved in specific models (C-statistic original, recalibrated and specific: EuroSCORE I: 0.7340, 0.7471 and 0.7728; EuroSCORE II: 0.7442, 0.7423 and 0.7700). Calibration improved in both EuroSCORE I models (intercept 0.295, slope 0.829 (original); intercept -0.094, slope 0.888 (recalibrated); intercept -0.059, slope 0.925 (specific)) but only in specific EuroSCORE II model (intercept 2.554, slope 1.114 (original); intercept -0.260, slope 0.703 (recalibrated); intercept -0.053, slope 0.930 (specific)). Net Reclassification Index was 5.1% and 20.3% for the specific EuroSCORE I and II. CONCLUSIONS: The use of simplified EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II models in IE with the addition of specific variables may lead to simpler and more accurate models.