A comparison of three predictors of an individual's memory performance: the individual's feeling of knowing versus the normative feeling of knowing versus base-rate item difficulty.

Distinctions are drawn between different predictors of an individual's memory performance, with emphasis on the notion of privileged access to idiosyncratic knowledge. Research is reported in which undergraduates attempted to recall the answers to general-information questions, then made feeling-of-knowing judgments on nonrecalled items, and subsequently had a criterion test (relearning, perceptual identification, or one of two versions of recognition). For predicting an individual's criterion performance, the individual's own feeling-of-knowing predictions were intermediate between two kinds of normative predictions: The individual's feeling-of-knowing predictions were more accurate than predictions derived from normative feeling-of-knowing ratings but were less accurate than predictions derived from base-rate item difficulty (normative probabilities of correct recall). Subsidiary analyses showed that factors other than unreliability are responsible for the partial inaccuracy of the individual's feeling of knowing. Ramifications are discussed for possible ways to improve the accuracy of an individual's feeling-of-knowing predictions.