Andrea Corsonello1, Claudio Pedone2, Stefania Bandinelli3, Luigi Ferrucci4, Raffaele Antonelli Incalzi2,5. 1. Unit of Geriatric Pharmacoepidemiology, Italian National Research Center on Aging, Cosenza, Italy. 2. Unit of Geriatric Medicine, University Campus Biomedico, Rome, Italy. 3. Health Agency, Florence, Italy. 4. National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA. 5. 'Cittadella della Carità' Foundation, Taranto, Italy.
Abstract
AIMS: There is uncertainty about which estimated glomerular filtration rate eGFR equation to use in older people with respect to the prediction of prognosis. Our aim was: (i) to compare the discriminative capacity of eGFR estimated by different equations with respect to all-cause mortality; and (ii) to identify the eGFR threshold at which the risk of mortality starts to increase for each equation. METHODS: We used data from 828 community-dwelling older adults aged >65 years enrolled in the InCHIANTI study. The outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 9 years. GFR was estimated by five different equations: Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiological Collaboration (creatinine equation [CKD-EPIcre ], and creatinine and cystatin C equation [CKD-EPIcre-cys ]), Berlin Initiative Study (BIScre and BIScre-cys ) and full age spectrum. Sensitivity, specificity, areas under receiver operating curve (AUC) and C-statistics were used to compare their predictive capacity. RESULTS: The best mix of sensitivity, specificity, AUC and C-statistic value in predicting mortality was observed with BIS equations. BIScre (AUC 0.65, 95% CI 0.61-0.69) outperformed both CKD-EPIcre (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56-0.64; P = 0.005) and full age spectrum (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.59-0.67; P = 0.002) in terms of predictivity. Similarly, BIScre-cys (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.63-0.71) outperformed CKD-EPIcre-cys (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.59-0.67; P = 0.01). AUC obtained with equations also including cystatin C were not significantly different compared with their creatinine-based counterparts. The risk of long-term mortality began to increase at under 65.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 for CKD-EPIcre-cys , 60.5 for CKD-EPIcre , 60 for BIScre-cys , 56.3 for BIScre and 55.2 for full age spectrum. CONCLUSIONS: The BIS equation discriminates the risk of all-cause mortality better than other equations in older community-dwelling individuals. The eGFR threshold under which mortality starts to increase could change as a function of the equation used. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 607-614.
AIMS: There is uncertainty about which estimated glomerular filtration rate eGFR equation to use in older people with respect to the prediction of prognosis. Our aim was: (i) to compare the discriminative capacity of eGFR estimated by different equations with respect to all-cause mortality; and (ii) to identify the eGFR threshold at which the risk of mortality starts to increase for each equation. METHODS: We used data from 828 community-dwelling older adults aged >65 years enrolled in the InCHIANTI study. The outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 9 years. GFR was estimated by five different equations: Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiological Collaboration (creatinine equation [CKD-EPIcre ], and creatinine and cystatin C equation [CKD-EPIcre-cys ]), Berlin Initiative Study (BIScre and BIScre-cys ) and full age spectrum. Sensitivity, specificity, areas under receiver operating curve (AUC) and C-statistics were used to compare their predictive capacity. RESULTS: The best mix of sensitivity, specificity, AUC and C-statistic value in predicting mortality was observed with BIS equations. BIScre (AUC 0.65, 95% CI 0.61-0.69) outperformed both CKD-EPIcre (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56-0.64; P = 0.005) and full age spectrum (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.59-0.67; P = 0.002) in terms of predictivity. Similarly, BIScre-cys (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.63-0.71) outperformed CKD-EPIcre-cys (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.59-0.67; P = 0.01). AUC obtained with equations also including cystatin C were not significantly different compared with their creatinine-based counterparts. The risk of long-term mortality began to increase at under 65.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 for CKD-EPIcre-cys , 60.5 for CKD-EPIcre , 60 for BIScre-cys , 56.3 for BIScre and 55.2 for full age spectrum. CONCLUSIONS: The BIS equation discriminates the risk of all-cause mortality better than other equations in older community-dwelling individuals. The eGFR threshold under which mortality starts to increase could change as a function of the equation used. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 607-614.
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