Estimation of the Effect of Body Weight on the Development of Osteoarthritis Based on Cumulative Stresses in Cartilage: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

Evaluation of the subject-specific biomechanical effects of obesity on the progression of OA is challenging. The aim of this study was to create 3D MRI-based finite element models of the knee joints of seven obese subjects, who had developed OA at 4-year follow-up, and of seven normal weight subjects, who had not developed OA at 4-year follow-up, to test the sensitivity of cumulative maximum principal stresses in cartilage in quantitative risk evaluation of the initiation and progression of knee OA. Volumes of elements with cumulative stresses over 5 MPa in tibial cartilage were significantly (p < 0.05) larger in obese subjects as compared to normal weight subjects. Locations of high peak cumulative stresses at the baseline in most of the obese subjects showed a good agreement with the locations of the cartilage loss and MRI scoring at follow-up. Simulated weight loss (to body mass index 24 kg/m2) in obese subjects led to significant reduction of the highest cumulative stresses in tibial and femoral cartilages. The modeling results suggest that an analysis of cumulative stresses could be used to evaluate subject-specific effects of obesity and weight loss on cartilage responses and potential risks for the progression of knee OA.