Emergence of canine parvovirus subtype 2b (CPV-2b) infections in Australian dogs.

Tracing the temporal dynamics of pathogens is crucial for developing strategies to detect and limit disease emergence. Canine parvovirus (CPV-2) is an enteric virus causing morbidity and mortality in dogs around the globe. Previous work in Australia reported that the majority of cases were associated with the CPV-2a subtype, an unexpected finding since CPV-2a was rapidly replaced by another subtype (CPV-2b) in many countries. Using a nine-year dataset of CPV-2 infections from 396 dogs sampled across Australia, we assessed the population dynamics and molecular epidemiology of circulating CPV-2 subtypes. Bayesian phylogenetic Skygrid models and logistic regressions were used to trace the temporal dynamics of CPV-2 infections in dogs sampled from 2007 to 2016. Phylogenetic models indicated that CPV-2a likely emerged in Australia between 1973 and 1988, while CPV-2b likely emerged between 1985 and 1998. Sequences from both subtypes were found in dogs across continental Australia and Tasmania, with no apparent effect of climate variability on subtype occurrence. Both variant subtypes exhibited a classical disease emergence pattern of relatively high rates of evolution during early emergence followed by subsequent decreases in evolutionary rates over time. However, the CPV-2b subtype maintained higher mutation rates than CPV-2a and continued to expand, resulting in an increase in the probability that dogs will carry this subtype over time. Ongoing monitoring programs that provide molecular epidemiology surveillance will be necessary to detect emergence of new variants and make informed recommendations to develop reliable detection and vaccine methods.