| Literature DB >> 29200496 |
Martin J P Sullivan1,2, James W Pearce-Higgins1, Stuart E Newson1, Paul Scholefield3, Tom Brereton4, Tom H Oliver3,5.
Abstract
Modelling species distribution and abundance is important for many conservation applications, but it is typically performed using relatively coarse-scale environmental variables such as the area of broad land-cover types. Fine-scale environmental data capturing the most biologically relevant variables have the potential to improve these models. For example, field studies have demonstrated the importance of linear features, such as hedgerows, for multiple taxa, but the absence of large-scale datasets of their extent prevents their inclusion in large-scale modelling studies.We assessed whether a novel spatial dataset mapping linear and woody-linear features across the UK improves the performance of abundance models of 18 bird and 24 butterfly species across 3723 and 1547 UK monitoring sites, respectively.Although improvements in explanatory power were small, the inclusion of linear features data significantly improved model predictive performance for many species. For some species, the importance of linear features depended on landscape context, with greater importance in agricultural areas. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates that a national-scale model of the extent and distribution of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. The ability to model spatial variability in the role of linear features such as hedgerows will be important in targeting agri-environment schemes to maximally deliver biodiversity benefits. Although this study focuses on farmland, data on the extent of different linear features are likely to improve species distribution and abundance models in a wide range of systems and also can potentially be used to assess habitat connectivity.Entities:
Keywords: GIS; Hedgerow; abundance model; agriculture; bird; butterfly; remote sensing; species distribution model
Year: 2017 PMID: 29200496 PMCID: PMC5697618 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12912
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Appl Ecol ISSN: 0021-8901 Impact factor: 6.528
Environmental variables used in different model sets
| Model term (if LCM classes have been aggregated constituent classes are in parenthesis) | Units | Explanatory variable set |
|---|---|---|
| Arable and horticulture | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full, agriculture) |
| Improved grassland | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full, agriculture) |
| Rough grassland | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full, agriculture) |
| Calcareous grassland | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full) |
| Other semi‐natural grassland (neutral grassland, acid grassland) | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (Full) |
| Broadleaved woodland | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full) |
| Coniferous woodland | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full) |
| Fen, marsh and swamp | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full) |
| Heath and bog (heather, heather grassland, bog) | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full) |
| Urban and suburban (urban, suburban) | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full) |
| Freshwater | Proportion of buffer | Land cover (full) |
| Altitude | m above sea level/maximum altitude | Land cover (full, agriculture) |
| Linear features length | m/100 000 | Linear features |
| Woody linear features length | m/100 000 | Linear features |
All variables listed here were entered into models with linear and quadratic terms.
Altitude and linear features length were both transformed this way so that their values ranged between 0 and 1, the same range as in variables from LCM2007.
Marginal and conditional R 2 of models of bird and butterfly abundance
| Taxa | Explanatory variables | Model structure | Marginal | Conditional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birds | Full | Land cover | 0·339 ± 0·068 | 0·683 ± 0·045 |
| Land cover | 0·344 ± 0·066 | 0·680 ± 0·046 | ||
| Land cover | 0·351 ± 0·066 | 0·681 ± 0·045 | ||
| Agriculture | Land cover | 0·168 ± 0·0272 | 0·626 ± 0·037 | |
| Land cover | 0·198 ± 0·028 | 0·612 ± 0·039 | ||
| Land cover | 0·186 ± 0·029 | 0·609 ± 0·037 | ||
| Linear features only | 0·146 ± 0·021 | 0·635 ± 0·048 | ||
| Year only | 0·129 ± 0·019 | 0·649 ± 0·048 | ||
| Butterfly | Full | Land cover | 0·206 ± 0·025 | 0·808 ± 0·022 |
| Land cover | 0·219 ± 0·032 | 0·812 ± 0·022 | ||
| Land cover | 0·221 ± 0·030 | 0·811 ± 0·022 | ||
| Agriculture | Land cover | 0·111 ± 0·013 | 0·797 ± 0·022 | |
| Land cover | 0·122 ± 0·014 | 0·796 ± 0·022 | ||
| Land cover | 0·126 ± 0·0135 | 0·795 ± 0·022 | ||
| Linear features only | 0·112 ± 0·010 | 0·810 ± 0·021 | ||
| Year only | 0·111 ± 0·010 | 0·812 ± 0·021 |
+denotes linear features length being included in the model in an additive fashion. *denotes linear features being included as an interaction. Note that R 2 in mixed effects models do not necessarily increase with additional explanatory variables.
Effect of including linear features as an additive or interaction term on abundance models. Note that prediction errors could not be assessed for two bird species and one butterfly species due to insufficient data to perform cross‐validation
| Number of species | Number of species for which linear features are in the 95% confidence set | Number of species where best model contained linear features | Number of species where linear features term reduced prediction error | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birds | 18 | Either additive or interaction | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| Additive | 9 | 7 | 14 | ||
| Interaction | 10 | 6 | 12 | ||
| Butterflies | 24 | Either additive or interaction | 24 | 13 | 17 |
| Additive | 24 | 11 | 15 | ||
| Interaction | 18 | 2 | 15 | ||
Figure 1Proportion of species for which models with different variable sets (see Table 1 for terms in each set) were in the 95% confidence set of best supported models. Multiple models for each species can appear in the 95% confidence set.
Figure 2Change in cross‐validation prediction error when linear features length was included in models. Models were fitted using all land‐cover classes (Full) or only those relating to agriculture. Bars show the number of species where prediction error was significantly reduced (Sig −), non‐significantly reduced (NS −), non‐significantly increased (NS +) or significantly increased (Sig +) when linear features length was included. The results of binomial tests, which test whether the proportion of species where linear features improved predictive performance differed from 0·5, are shown above bars. **P < 0·01, *P < 0·05, ˙P < 0·1, NS P > 0·1).
Effect of linear features variable type (all linear features or woody linear features only) on model performance. Differences in the performance of models with different linear features was measured with ΔAIC, with larger values indicating greater support for one model over the other. See Table S4 for results for individual species
| Number of species for which woody linear features term best predicts abundance | Number of species for which all linear features term best predicts abundance | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ΔAIC ≥4 | ΔAIC <4 | ΔAIC <4 | ΔAIC ≥4 | |
| Birds | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Butterflies | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 |