Policy implications of modelling of the AIDS epidemic.

Health policy issues associated with AIDS are complex and controversial, including health care, research priorities, education, testing and confidentiality. Modelling may provide information relevant to their solution. Estimates of the future numbers of symptomatic persons and of the mix of severity are necessary for developing the capability to provide and fund health care services. Models may suggest other data needs and research directions. An important policy role of models is to permit evaluation of potential intervention steps and especially to project negative consequences. The critical contribution of models will be improved understanding of the dynamics of the AIDS epidemic.