Some stochastic models of AIDS spread.

In this paper we propose a stochastic model for the AIDS spread in a homosexual population. The probability generating function (PGF) of the numbers of latent persons, infective persons and AIDS cases is derived. By using the PGF, it is shown that the expected numbers and variances and covariances of these persons satisfy some ordinary differential equations. These equations have been solved numerically to assess effects of various factors on AIDS spread.