Nonmarital First Births, Marriage, and Income Inequality.

Many aggregate-level studies suggest a relationship between economic inequality and socio-demographic outcomes such as family formation, health, and mortality; but individual-level evidence is lacking. Nor is there satisfactory evidence on the mechanisms by which inequality may have an effect. We study the determinants of transitions to a nonmarital first birth as a single parent or as a cohabiting parent compared to transitions to marriage prior to a first birth among unmarried, childless young adults in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 cohort, from 1997 to 2011. We include measures of county-group-level household income inequality and of the availability of jobs typically held by high-school graduates and which pay above-poverty wages. We find that greater income inequality is associated with a reduced likelihood of transitioning to marriage prior to a first birth for both women and men. The association between levels of inequality and transitions to marriage can be partially accounted for by the availability of jobs of the type we measured. Some models also suggest that greater income inequality is associated with a reduced likelihood of transitioning to a first birth while cohabiting.