Susanne F Awad1, Martin O'Flaherty2, Julia Critchley3, Laith J Abu-Raddad4. 1. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK. Electronic address: sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu. 2. Division of Public Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. 3. Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK. 4. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA. Electronic address: lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
Abstract
AIMS: We developed and demonstrated a novel mathematical modeling approach to forecast the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to investigate T2DM epidemiology for the purpose of informing public health policy and programming. METHODS: A population-level compartmental mathematical model was constructed and applied to Qatar. The model was stratified according to sex, age group, risk factor status, and T2DM status, and was parameterized by nationally-representative data. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2012 to at least 24.0% by 2050. The rise in T2DM was most prominent among 45-54 years old. T2DM health expenditure was estimated to increase by 200-600% and to account for up to 32% of total health expenditure by 2050. Prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity was predicted to increase from 41.4% to 51.0%, from 16.4% to 19.4%, and from 45.9% to 53.0%, respectively. The proportion of T2DM incidence attributed to obesity, smoking and physical inactivity was estimated at 57.5%, 1.8%, and 5.4%, respectively in 2012, and 65.7%, 2.1%, and 6.0%, respectively in 2050. Exploring different scenarios for the trends in risk factors, T2DM prevalence reached up to 37.7% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Using our innovative approach, a rising T2DM epidemic is predicted to continue in the next decades, driven by population growth, ageing and adverse trends in risk factors. Obesity was the principal risk factor explaining two-thirds of T2DM incidence. T2DM must be a national priority addressed by preventive and therapeutic interventions targeting T2DM and its modifiable risk factors.
AIMS: We developed and demonstrated a novel mathematical modeling approach to forecast the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to investigate T2DM epidemiology for the purpose of informing public health policy and programming. METHODS: A population-level compartmental mathematical model was constructed and applied to Qatar. The model was stratified according to sex, age group, risk factor status, and T2DM status, and was parameterized by nationally-representative data. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2012 to at least 24.0% by 2050. The rise in T2DM was most prominent among 45-54 years old. T2DM health expenditure was estimated to increase by 200-600% and to account for up to 32% of total health expenditure by 2050. Prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity was predicted to increase from 41.4% to 51.0%, from 16.4% to 19.4%, and from 45.9% to 53.0%, respectively. The proportion of T2DM incidence attributed to obesity, smoking and physical inactivity was estimated at 57.5%, 1.8%, and 5.4%, respectively in 2012, and 65.7%, 2.1%, and 6.0%, respectively in 2050. Exploring different scenarios for the trends in risk factors, T2DM prevalence reached up to 37.7% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Using our innovative approach, a rising T2DM epidemic is predicted to continue in the next decades, driven by population growth, ageing and adverse trends in risk factors. Obesity was the principal risk factor explaining two-thirds of T2DM incidence. T2DM must be a national priority addressed by preventive and therapeutic interventions targeting T2DM and its modifiable risk factors.
Authors: Susanne F Awad; Soha R Dargham; Amine A Toumi; Elsy M Dumit; Katie G El-Nahas; Abdulla O Al-Hamaq; Julia A Critchley; Jaakko Tuomilehto; Mohamed H J Al-Thani; Laith J Abu-Raddad Journal: Sci Rep Date: 2021-01-19 Impact factor: 4.379
Authors: Susanne F Awad; Martin O'Flaherty; Katie G El-Nahas; Abdulla O Al-Hamaq; Julia A Critchley; Laith J Abu-Raddad Journal: Popul Health Metr Date: 2019-12-30
Authors: Fiona Pearson; Peijue Huangfu; Farah M Abu-Hijleh; Susanne F Awad; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Julia A Critchley Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2020-08-20 Impact factor: 2.692