Lucas E Hermans1, Michelle Moorhouse2, Sergio Carmona3, Diederick E Grobbee4, L Marije Hofstra5, Douglas D Richman6, Hugo A Tempelman7, Willem D F Venter8, Annemarie M J Wensing9. 1. Translational Virology, Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands; Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Ndlovu Research Consortium, Elandsdoorn, South Africa. 2. Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. 3. Department of Molecular Medicine and Haematology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa. 4. Clinical Epidemiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands; Ndlovu Research Consortium, Elandsdoorn, South Africa; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht, Netherlands. 5. Translational Virology, Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. 6. Center for AIDS Research, University of California San Diego and VA San Diego Healthcare System, La Jolla, CA, USA. 7. Ndlovu Research Consortium, Elandsdoorn, South Africa; Ndlovu Care Group, Elandsdoorn, South Africa. 8. Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Ndlovu Research Consortium, Elandsdoorn, South Africa. 9. Translational Virology, Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands; Ndlovu Research Consortium, Elandsdoorn, South Africa. Electronic address: a.m.j.wensing@umcutrecht.nl.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) that enables suppression of HIV replication has been successfully rolled out at large scale to HIV-positive patients in low-income and middle-income countries. WHO guidelines for these regions define failure of ART with a lenient threshold of viraemia (HIV RNA viral load ≥1000 copies per mL). We investigated the occurrence of detectable viraemia during ART below this threshold and its effect on treatment outcomes in a large South African cohort. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we included HIV-positive adults registered between Jan 1, 2007, and May 1, 2016, at 57 clinical sites in South Africa, who were receiving WHO-recommended ART regimens and viral load monitoring. Low-level viraemia was defined as the occurrence of at least one viral load measurement of 51-999 copies per mL during ART. Outcomes were WHO-defined virological failure (one or more viral load measurement of ≥1000 copies per mL) and switch to second-line ART. Risks were estimated with Cox proportional hazard models. FINDINGS: 70 930 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 67 644 received first-line ART, 1476 received second-line ART, and 1810 received both. Median duration of follow-up was 124 weeks (IQR 56-221) for patients on first-line ART and 101 weeks (IQR 51-178) for patients on second-line ART. Low-level viraemia occurred in 16 013 (23%) of 69 454 patients, with an incidence of 11·5 per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI 11·4-11·7), during first-line ART. Virological failure during follow-up occurred in 14 380 (22%) of 69 454 patients on first-line ART. Low-level viraemia was associated with increased hazards of virological failure (hazard ratio [HR] 2·6, 95% CI 2·5-2·8; p<0·0001) and switch to second-line ART (HR 5·2, 4·4-6·1; p<0·0001]) compared with virological suppression of less than 50 copies per mL. Risk of virological failure increased further with higher ranges and persistence of low-level viraemia. INTERPRETATION: In this large cohort, low-level viraemia occurred frequently and increased the risk of virological failure and switch to second-line ART. Strategies for management of low-level viraemia need to be incorporated into WHO guidelines to meet UNAIDS-defined targets aimed at halting the global HIV epidemic. FUNDING: None.
BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) that enables suppression of HIV replication has been successfully rolled out at large scale to HIV-positive patients in low-income and middle-income countries. WHO guidelines for these regions define failure of ART with a lenient threshold of viraemia (HIV RNA viral load ≥1000 copies per mL). We investigated the occurrence of detectable viraemia during ART below this threshold and its effect on treatment outcomes in a large South African cohort. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we included HIV-positive adults registered between Jan 1, 2007, and May 1, 2016, at 57 clinical sites in South Africa, who were receiving WHO-recommended ART regimens and viral load monitoring. Low-level viraemia was defined as the occurrence of at least one viral load measurement of 51-999 copies per mL during ART. Outcomes were WHO-defined virological failure (one or more viral load measurement of ≥1000 copies per mL) and switch to second-line ART. Risks were estimated with Cox proportional hazard models. FINDINGS: 70 930 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 67 644 received first-line ART, 1476 received second-line ART, and 1810 received both. Median duration of follow-up was 124 weeks (IQR 56-221) for patients on first-line ART and 101 weeks (IQR 51-178) for patients on second-line ART. Low-level viraemia occurred in 16 013 (23%) of 69 454 patients, with an incidence of 11·5 per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI 11·4-11·7), during first-line ART. Virological failure during follow-up occurred in 14 380 (22%) of 69 454 patients on first-line ART. Low-level viraemia was associated with increased hazards of virological failure (hazard ratio [HR] 2·6, 95% CI 2·5-2·8; p<0·0001) and switch to second-line ART (HR 5·2, 4·4-6·1; p<0·0001]) compared with virological suppression of less than 50 copies per mL. Risk of virological failure increased further with higher ranges and persistence of low-level viraemia. INTERPRETATION: In this large cohort, low-level viraemia occurred frequently and increased the risk of virological failure and switch to second-line ART. Strategies for management of low-level viraemia need to be incorporated into WHO guidelines to meet UNAIDS-defined targets aimed at halting the global HIV epidemic. FUNDING: None.
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