Emanuele Sironi1, Franco Taroni2, Claudio Baldinotti3, Cosimo Nardi4, Gian-Aristide Norelli3, Matteo Gallidabino5, Vilma Pinchi3. 1. School of Criminal Justice, Building Batochime, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland. emanuele.sironi@alumnil.unil.ch. 2. School of Criminal Justice, Building Batochime, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland. 3. Section of Forensic Medical Sciences, Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Largo Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy. 4. Radiodiagnostic Unit n. 2, Department of Experimental and Clinical Biomedical Sciences, University of Florence, Largo Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy. 5. Division of Analytical and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science & Medicine, King's College London, 150 Stamford Street, London, SE1 9NH, UK.
Abstract
PURPOSE: The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. METHODS: The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.
PURPOSE: The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. METHODS: The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.
Keywords:
Adult age estimation; Bayesian approach; Bayesian networks; Forensic age estimation; Pulp chamber volume narrowing; Secondary dentine deposition
Authors: R Cameriere; Stefano De Luca; I Soriano Vázquez; H C Kiş; Y Pigolkin; A Kumagai; L Ferrante Journal: Int J Legal Med Date: 2020-10-05 Impact factor: 2.686