Benjamin D Pollock1, Giovanni Filardo2, Briget da Graca1, Teresa K Phan1, Gorav Ailawadi3, Vinod Thourani4, Ralph J Damiano5, James R Edgerton6. 1. Office of the Chief Quality Officer, Baylor Scott & White Health, Dallas, Texas. 2. Office of the Chief Quality Officer, Baylor Scott & White Health, Dallas, Texas; The Heart Hospital Baylor Plano, Plano, Texas. Electronic address: giovanfi@baylorhealth.edu. 3. Division of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia. 4. Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia. 5. Department of Cardiac Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine and Barnes-Jewish Hospital, St. Louis, Missouri. 6. The Heart Hospital Baylor Plano, Plano, Texas.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) operation is associated with poorer survival. Blanket prophylaxis efforts have not appreciably decreased incidence, making targeted prevention for high-risk patients desirable. We compared predictive abilities of existing scores developed/used to predict adverse CABG outcomes (Society of Thoracic Surgeons' [STS] risk of mortality) or AF not associated with cardiac operation (the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology [CHARGE]-AF score, the CHA2DS2-VASc score), and a risk model for predicting postoperative AF following cardiac operations (POAF score), with age (the most consistently identified post-CABG AF risk factor). METHODS: Data submitted to the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database were used to assess new-onset AF in 8,976 consecutive patients without preoperative AF undergoing isolated CABG from 2004 to 2010 at five participating centers. Five logistic regression models (for CHA2DS2-VASc score, CHARGE-AF score, POAF score, STS risk score, and age, respectively, all modeled with restricted cubic splines) with a random effect for site were fitted to predict post-CABG AF. Estimates were used to compute and compare receiver operating characteristic (ROC) areas. RESULTS: New-onset AF occurred in 2,141 patients (23.9%). The ROC area was greatest for CHARGE-AF (0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.69), followed by age (0.66, 95% CI: 0.65-0.68), POAF score (0.65, 95% CI: 0.64-0.66), CHA2DS2-VASc (0.59, 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.60), and STS risk of mortality (0.58, 95% CI: 0.56-0.59). CHARGE-AF was significantly more predictive than age (p < 0.0001); the other scores were significantly less predictive (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Only CHARGE-AF performed better than age alone. Its performance was moderate and comparable with published risk models specifically targeted at new-onset post-isolated CABG AF. Future research should continue to focus on developing better predictive models.
BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) operation is associated with poorer survival. Blanket prophylaxis efforts have not appreciably decreased incidence, making targeted prevention for high-risk patients desirable. We compared predictive abilities of existing scores developed/used to predict adverse CABG outcomes (Society of Thoracic Surgeons' [STS] risk of mortality) or AF not associated with cardiac operation (the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology [CHARGE]-AF score, the CHA2DS2-VASc score), and a risk model for predicting postoperative AF following cardiac operations (POAF score), with age (the most consistently identified post-CABG AF risk factor). METHODS: Data submitted to the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database were used to assess new-onset AF in 8,976 consecutive patients without preoperative AF undergoing isolated CABG from 2004 to 2010 at five participating centers. Five logistic regression models (for CHA2DS2-VASc score, CHARGE-AF score, POAF score, STS risk score, and age, respectively, all modeled with restricted cubic splines) with a random effect for site were fitted to predict post-CABG AF. Estimates were used to compute and compare receiver operating characteristic (ROC) areas. RESULTS: New-onset AF occurred in 2,141 patients (23.9%). The ROC area was greatest for CHARGE-AF (0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.69), followed by age (0.66, 95% CI: 0.65-0.68), POAF score (0.65, 95% CI: 0.64-0.66), CHA2DS2-VASc (0.59, 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.60), and STS risk of mortality (0.58, 95% CI: 0.56-0.59). CHARGE-AF was significantly more predictive than age (p < 0.0001); the other scores were significantly less predictive (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Only CHARGE-AF performed better than age alone. Its performance was moderate and comparable with published risk models specifically targeted at new-onset post-isolated CABG AF. Future research should continue to focus on developing better predictive models.