Outcomes from 10 years of biodiversity offsetting.

We quantified net changes to the area and quality of native vegetation after the introduction of biodiversity offsetting in New South Wales, Australia-a policy intended to "prevent broad-scale clearing of native vegetation unless it improves or maintains environmental values." Over 10 years, a total of 21,928 ha of native vegetation was approved for clearing under this policy and 83,459 ha was established as biodiversity offsets. We estimated that no net loss in the area of native vegetation under this policy will not occur for 146 years. This is because 82% of the total area offset was obtained by averting losses to existing native vegetation and the rate that these averted losses accrue was over-estimated in the policy. There were predicted net gains in 10 of the 14 attributes used to assess the quality of habitat. An overall net gain in the quality of habitat was assessed under this policy by substituting habitat attributes that are difficult to restore (e.g. mature trees) with habitat attributes for which restoration is relatively easy (e.g. tree seedlings). Long-term rates of annual deforestation did not significantly change across the study area after biodiversity offsetting was introduced. Overall, the policy examined here provides no net loss of biodiversity: (i) many generations into the future, which is not consistent with intergenerational equity; and (ii) by substituting different habitat attributes, so gains are not equivalent to losses. We recommend a number of changes to biodiversity offsetting policy to overcome these issues.