Multi-layered water resources, management, and uses under the impacts of global changes in a southern coastal metropolis: When will it be already too late? Crossed analysis in Recife, NE Brazil.

Coastal water resources are a worldwide key socio-environmental issue considering the increasing concentration of population in these areas. Here, we propose an integrative transdisciplinary approach of water resource, water management and water access in Recife (NE Brazil). The present-day water situation is conceptualized as an imbricated multi-layered system: a multi-layered water resource, managed by a multi-layered governance system and used by a multi-layered social population. This allows identifying processes of quantitative, qualitative, and sanitary conflicts between governance and population strategies regarding water supply, as well as the institutional and individual denials of these conflicts. Based on this model, we anticipate future water-related problematic fates. Concerning the water resource system, the rapid groundwater level decrease due to unsustainable water predatory strategies, and the very low recharge rate have drastically modified the aquifer system functioning, inducing hydraulic connection between shallow groundwater (contaminated and locally salty) and deep ones (mostly fresh, with local inherited salinity), threatening the deep strategic water resource. Concerning the water governance system, the investments to increase the capacity storage of surface water, the water regulation agencies and the public/private partnership should shortly improve the water supply and wastewater issue. Nevertheless, the water situation will remain highly fragile due to the expected water demand increase, the precipitation decrease and the sea-level increase. Concerning the water access system, the population variably perceives these current and further effects and the possible mitigation policies, and develops alternative individual strategies. Authorities, policymakers and water managers will have to implement a well-balanced water governance, taking into account the specificities of the PPP, public and private groundwater users, and with a strong political willingness for a sustainable water management to ensure water supply for all the population. In other words, an anticipatory and integrated vision is necessary to reduce the discrepancies in this complex system.