Samuel Hawley1, René Cordtz2, Lene Dreyer2, Christopher J Edwards3, Nigel K Arden4, Antonella Delmestri5, Alan Silman5, Cyrus Cooper6, Andrew Judge6, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra7. 1. Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD. 2. Centre for Rheumatology and Spine Diseases, Gentofte University Hospital, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark; The Parker Institute, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark. 3. University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK; Musculoskeletal Research Unit, NIHR Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. 4. Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK; MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. 5. Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK. 6. Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK; Musculoskeletal Research Unit, NIHR Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. 7. Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD; GREMPAL Research Group, Idiap Jordi Gol Primary Care Research Institute and CIBERFes, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain. Electronic address: daniel.prietoalhambra@ndorms.ox.ac.uk.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of NICE approval of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapies on the incidence of total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in England and Wales. METHODS: Primary care data [Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)] for the study period (1995-2014) were used to identify incident adult RA patients. The age and sex-standardised 5-year incidence of THR and TKR was calculated separately for RA patients diagnosed in each six-months between 1995-2009. We took a natural experimental approach, using segmented linear regression to estimate changes in level and trend following the publication of NICE TA 36 in March 2002, incorporating a 1-year lag. Regression coefficients were used to calculate average change in rates, adjusted for prior level and trend. RESULTS: We identified 17,505 incident RA patients of whom 465 and 650 underwent THR and TKR surgery, respectively. The modeled average incidence of THR and TKR over the biologic-era was 6.57/1000 person years (PYs) and 8.51/1000 PYs, respectively, with projected (had pre-NICE TA 36 level and trend continued uninterrupted) figures of 5.63/1000 PYs and 12.92 PYs, respectively. NICE guidance was associated with a significant average decrease in TKR incidence of -4.41/1000 PYs (95% C.I. -6.88 to -1.94), equating to a relative 34% reduction. Overall, no effect was seen on THR rates. CONCLUSIONS: Among incident RA patients in England and Wales, NICE guidance on TNFi therapies for RA management was temporally associated with reduced rates of TKR but not THR.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of NICE approval of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapies on the incidence of total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in England and Wales. METHODS: Primary care data [Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)] for the study period (1995-2014) were used to identify incident adult RA patients. The age and sex-standardised 5-year incidence of THR and TKR was calculated separately for RA patients diagnosed in each six-months between 1995-2009. We took a natural experimental approach, using segmented linear regression to estimate changes in level and trend following the publication of NICE TA 36 in March 2002, incorporating a 1-year lag. Regression coefficients were used to calculate average change in rates, adjusted for prior level and trend. RESULTS: We identified 17,505 incident RA patients of whom 465 and 650 underwent THR and TKR surgery, respectively. The modeled average incidence of THR and TKR over the biologic-era was 6.57/1000 person years (PYs) and 8.51/1000 PYs, respectively, with projected (had pre-NICE TA 36 level and trend continued uninterrupted) figures of 5.63/1000 PYs and 12.92 PYs, respectively. NICE guidance was associated with a significant average decrease in TKR incidence of -4.41/1000 PYs (95% C.I. -6.88 to -1.94), equating to a relative 34% reduction. Overall, no effect was seen on THR rates. CONCLUSIONS: Among incident RA patients in England and Wales, NICE guidance on TNFi therapies for RA management was temporally associated with reduced rates of TKR but not THR.
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