Aims: Several predictors of relapse after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been established, but assessing each patient's individual risk remains challenging. Our aim was to develop and validate a score to estimate the risk of AF recurrence after the first radiofrequency pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) procedure. Methods and results: Independent predictors of AF relapse were identified retrospectively in a two-centre registry of 1934 patients who underwent a first PVI procedure. Using the Cox regression hazard ratios of designated variables, a risk score was developed in a random sample of 50% of the patients (development cohort) and validated in the remaining (validation cohort) half. The accuracy and discriminative power of the predictive model were assessed in both subgroups. During a follow-up of 4.2 ± 2.7 years, 522 patients (27%) relapsed. Five independent predictors of AF recurrence were identified and included in the score: age >60 years (1 point), female sex (4 points), non-paroxysmal AF (2 points), current smoking (7 points) and indexed left atrial volume (1 point for each 10 mL/m2). The score showed good discriminative power (censored c-statistic of 0.75 in both cohorts). In the development group, AF relapse rates were 8, 11, and 17%/year for low (<6 points), intermediate (6-10 points), and high-risk patients (>10 points), respectively (P < 0.001). In the validation group, AF recurrence rates were 8, 11, and 18%/year, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusion: A simple risk score to estimate the rate of AF recurrence after ablation was developed and validated. An external assessment of its usefulness as a patient selection tool seems warranted.
Aims: Several predictors of relapse after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been established, but assessing each patient's individual risk remains challenging. Our aim was to develop and validate a score to estimate the risk of AF recurrence after the first radiofrequency pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) procedure. Methods and results: Independent predictors of AF relapse were identified retrospectively in a two-centre registry of 1934 patients who underwent a first PVI procedure. Using the Cox regression hazard ratios of designated variables, a risk score was developed in a random sample of 50% of the patients (development cohort) and validated in the remaining (validation cohort) half. The accuracy and discriminative power of the predictive model were assessed in both subgroups. During a follow-up of 4.2 ± 2.7 years, 522 patients (27%) relapsed. Five independent predictors of AF recurrence were identified and included in the score: age >60 years (1 point), female sex (4 points), non-paroxysmal AF (2 points), current smoking (7 points) and indexed left atrial volume (1 point for each 10 mL/m2). The score showed good discriminative power (censored c-statistic of 0.75 in both cohorts). In the development group, AF relapse rates were 8, 11, and 17%/year for low (<6 points), intermediate (6-10 points), and high-risk patients (>10 points), respectively (P < 0.001). In the validation group, AF recurrence rates were 8, 11, and 18%/year, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusion: A simple risk score to estimate the rate of AF recurrence after ablation was developed and validated. An external assessment of its usefulness as a patient selection tool seems warranted.
Authors: João Mesquita; Diogo Cavaco; António Miguel Ferreira; Francisco Moscoso Costa; Pedro Carmo; Francisco Morgado; Miguel Mendes; Pedro Adragão Journal: J Interv Card Electrophysiol Date: 2018-03-06 Impact factor: 1.900
Authors: Jonathan James Hyett Bray; Moghees Ahmad Hanif; Mohammad Alradhawi; Jacob Ibbetson; Surinder Singh Dosanjh; Sabrina Lucy Smith; Mahmood Ahmad; Dominic Pimenta Journal: Eur Heart J Open Date: 2022-03-17
Authors: Jens Cosedis Nielsen; Yenn-Jiang Lin; Marcio Jansen de Oliveira Figueiredo; Alireza Sepehri Shamloo; Alberto Alfie; Serge Boveda; Nikolaos Dagres; Dario Di Toro; Lee L Eckhardt; Kenneth Ellenbogen; Carina Hardy; Takanori Ikeda; Aparna Jaswal; Elizabeth Kaufman; Andrew Krahn; Kengo Kusano; Valentina Kutyifa; Han S Lim; Gregory Y H Lip; Santiago Nava-Townsend; Hui-Nam Pak; Gerardo Rodríguez Diez; William Sauer; Anil Saxena; Jesper Hastrup Svendsen; Diego Vanegas; Marmar Vaseghi; Arthur Wilde; T Jared Bunch; Alfred E Buxton; Gonzalo Calvimontes; Tze-Fan Chao; Lars Eckardt; Heidi Estner; Anne M Gillis; Rodrigo Isa; Josef Kautzner; Philippe Maury; Joshua D Moss; Gi-Byung Nam; Brian Olshansky; Luis Fernando Pava Molano; Mauricio Pimentel; Mukund Prabhu; Wendy S Tzou; Philipp Sommer; Janice Swampillai; Alejandro Vidal; Thomas Deneke; Gerhard Hindricks; Christophe Leclercq Journal: Europace Date: 2020-08-01 Impact factor: 5.214
Authors: Julie K Shade; Rheeda L Ali; Dante Basile; Dan Popescu; Tauseef Akhtar; Joseph E Marine; David D Spragg; Hugh Calkins; Natalia A Trayanova Journal: Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol Date: 2020-06-14
Authors: Marek Jastrzębski; Grzegorz Kiełbasa; Kamil Fijorek; Adam Bednarski; Aleksander Kusiak; Tomasz Sondej; Agnieszka Bednarek; Wiktoria Wojciechowska; Marek Rajzer Journal: J Arrhythm Date: 2021-05-20