Kenneth B Gordon1, Keith A Betts2, Murali Sundaram3, James E Signorovitch4, Junlong Li4, Meng Xie4, Eric Q Wu4, Martin M Okun5. 1. Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. 2. Analysis Group Inc, Boston, Massachusetts. Electronic address: keith.betts@analysisgroup.com. 3. AbbVie Inc, North Chicago, Illinois. 4. Analysis Group Inc, Boston, Massachusetts. 5. AbbVie Inc, North Chicago, Illinois; Fort HealthCare, Fort Atkinson, Wisconsin.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Most methotrexate-treated psoriasis patients do not achieve a long-term PASI75 (75% reduction from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score) response. Indications of nonresponse can be apparent after only 4 weeks of treatment. OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction rule to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. METHODS: Patient-level data from CHAMPION (NCT00235820, N = 110) was used to construct a prediction model for week 16 PASI75 by using patient baseline characteristics and week 4 PASI25. A prediction rule was determined on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity and validated in terms of week 16 PASI75 response in an independent validation sample from trial M10-255 (NCT00679731, N = 163). RESULTS:PASI25 achievement at week 4 (odds ratio = 8.917) was highly predictive of response with methotrexate at week 16. Patients with a predicted response probability <30% were recommended to discontinue methotrexate. The rates of week 16 PASI75 response were 65.8% and 21.1% (P < .001) for patients recommended to continue and discontinue methotrexate, respectively. LIMITATIONS: The CHAMPION trial excluded patients previously treated with biologics, and the M10-255 trial had no restrictions. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule was developed and validated to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. The rule indicates that 4 weeks of methotrexate might be sufficient to predict long-term response with limited safety risk.
RCT Entities:
BACKGROUND: Most methotrexate-treated psoriasispatients do not achieve a long-term PASI75 (75% reduction from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score) response. Indications of nonresponse can be apparent after only 4 weeks of treatment. OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction rule to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. METHODS:Patient-level data from CHAMPION (NCT00235820, N = 110) was used to construct a prediction model for week 16 PASI75 by using patient baseline characteristics and week 4 PASI25. A prediction rule was determined on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity and validated in terms of week 16 PASI75 response in an independent validation sample from trial M10-255 (NCT00679731, N = 163). RESULTS: PASI25 achievement at week 4 (odds ratio = 8.917) was highly predictive of response with methotrexate at week 16. Patients with a predicted response probability <30% were recommended to discontinue methotrexate. The rates of week 16 PASI75 response were 65.8% and 21.1% (P < .001) for patients recommended to continue and discontinue methotrexate, respectively. LIMITATIONS: The CHAMPION trial excluded patients previously treated with biologics, and the M10-255 trial had no restrictions. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule was developed and validated to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. The rule indicates that 4 weeks of methotrexate might be sufficient to predict long-term response with limited safety risk.
Authors: Nikolai Loft; Alexander Egeberg; Mads Kirchheiner Rasmussen; Lars Erik Bryld; Christoffer V Nissen; Tomas Norman Dam; Kawa Khaled Ajgeiy; Lars Iversen; Lone Skov Journal: Acta Derm Venereol Date: 2021-01-04 Impact factor: 3.875