Literature DB >> 28991081

A New Prediction Model for Local Recurrence After Curative Rectal Cancer Surgery: Development and Validation as an Asian Collaborative Study.

Koya Hida1, Ryosuke Okamura, Soo Yeun Park, Tatsuto Nishigori, Ryo Takahashi, Kenji Kawada, Gyu-Seog Choi, Yoshiharu Sakai.   

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Local recurrence is one of the remaining problems in rectal and rectosigmoid cancer, and it is sometimes difficult to treat.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore various factors that are highly related to local recurrence and to develop a new prediction model for local recurrence after curative resection.
DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study SETTINGS:: This study was conducted at 2 academic hospitals in Japan and Korea. PATIENTS: A total of 2237 patients with stage I to III rectal and rectosigmoid cancer who underwent a curative operation with a negative circumferential margin were selected.
INTERVENTIONS: Surgical treatment was the intervention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Local recurrence was the primary outcome measure.
RESULTS: A total of 1232 patients were selected, and rectosigmoid cancer with rare local recurrence (2/221) was excluded. A different set of 792 patients with rectal cancer were chosen for validation. Multivariate analysis showed the following factors as significant for local recurrence: poorly differentiated tumor (HR, 11.2; 95% CI, 4.5-28.0), tumor depth (HR, 5.0), lymph node metastasis (HR, 4.1), operative procedure (HR, 3.2), postoperative complications (HR, 2.9), tumor location (HR, 2.6), and CEA level (HR, 2.4); a new prediction score was created by using these factors. A poorly differentiated tumor was assigned 2 points, and all other factors were assigned 1 point each. Patients who scored more than 5 points (n = 21) were judged as "high risk," with a 2-year local recurrence rate of 66.5%. The new predictive model could also separate the patients into different risk groups in the validation set. The high-risk group had higher recurrence rates than medium- and low-risk groups (2-year local recurrence rate: 41%, 15%, and 2.1%). LIMITATIONS: This study was limited by its retrospective nature and potential for selection bias.
CONCLUSIONS: Seven factors were shown to be significantly correlated with the local recurrence of rectal cancer, and the usefulness of this new prediction model was demonstrated. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A429.

Entities:  

Mesh:

Year:  2017        PMID: 28991081     DOI: 10.1097/DCR.0000000000000896

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Dis Colon Rectum        ISSN: 0012-3706            Impact factor:   4.585


  4 in total

1.  Risk factors and risk prediction models for colorectal cancer metastasis and recurrence: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies.

Authors:  Wei Xu; Yazhou He; Yuming Wang; Xue Li; Jane Young; John P A Ioannidis; Malcolm G Dunlop; Evropi Theodoratou
Journal:  BMC Med       Date:  2020-06-26       Impact factor: 8.775

2.  Bayesian network structure for predicting local tumor recurrence in rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by surgery.

Authors:  Biche Osong; Carlotta Masciocchi; Andrea Damiani; Inigo Bermejo; Elisa Meldolesi; Giuditta Chiloiro; Maaike Berbee; Seok Ho Lee; Andre Dekker; Vincenzo Valentini; Jean-Pierre Gerard; Claus Rödel; Krzysztof Bujko; Cornelis van de Velde; Joakim Folkesson; Aldo Sainato; Robert Glynne-Jones; Samuel Ngan; Morten Brændengen; David Sebag-Montefiore; Johan van Soest
Journal:  Phys Imaging Radiat Oncol       Date:  2022-03-29

3.  Intraoperative adverse events as a risk factor for local recurrence of rectal cancer after resection surgery.

Authors:  Sophia Waldenstedt; David Bock; Eva Haglind; Björn Sjöberg; Eva Angenete
Journal:  Colorectal Dis       Date:  2022-01-10       Impact factor: 3.917

4.  Factors predicting recurrence after curative resection for rectal cancer: a 16-year study.

Authors:  Waad Farhat; Mohamed Azzaza; Abdelkader Mizouni; Houssem Ammar; Mahdi Ben Ltaifa; Sami Lagha; Mohamed Kahloul; Rahul Gupta; Mohamed Ben Mabrouk; Ali Ben Ali
Journal:  World J Surg Oncol       Date:  2019-10-28       Impact factor: 2.754

  4 in total

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