Andreas Heltberg1, John Sahl Andersen2, Håkon Sandholdt2, Volkert Siersma2, Jakob Kragstrup2, Christina Ellervik3. 1. Section of General Practice, Department of Public Health and Research Unit for General Practice, University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Electronic address: anhe@sund.ku.dk. 2. Section of General Practice, Department of Public Health and Research Unit for General Practice, University of Copenhagen, Denmark. 3. Department of Production, Research, and Innovation, Region Zealand, Sorø, Denmark; Department of Laboratory Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital & Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
Abstract
AIMS: To investigate how self-reported risk factors (including socioeconomic status) predict undiagnosed, prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To externally validate Leicester Risk Assessment Score (LRAS), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and Danish Diabetes Risk Score (DDRS), and to investigate how these predict a European Heart SCORE≥5% in a Danish population study. METHODS: We included 21,205 adults from the Danish General Suburban Population Study. We used relative importance calculations of self-reported variables in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM. We externally validated established prediction models reporting ROC-curves for undiagnosed T2DM, pre-diabetes and SCORE. RESULTS: More than 20% of people with T2DM were undiagnosed. The 7 most important self-rated predictors in sequential order were high BMI, antihypertensive-therapy, age, cardiovascular disease, waist-circumference, fitness compared to peers and family disposition for T2DM. The Area Under the Curve for prediction of undiagnosed T2DM was 77.1 for LRAS; 75.4 for DDRS and 67.9 for FINDRISC. AUCs for SCORE was 75.1 for LRAS; 62.3 for DDRS and 54.3 for FINDRISC. CONCLUSIONS: BMI and self-reported cardiovascular disease are important risk factors for undiagnosed T2DM. LRAS performed better than DDRS and FINDRISC in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM and SCORE≥5%. SCORE performed best in predicting pre-diabetes.
AIMS: To investigate how self-reported risk factors (including socioeconomic status) predict undiagnosed, prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To externally validate Leicester Risk Assessment Score (LRAS), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and Danish Diabetes Risk Score (DDRS), and to investigate how these predict a European Heart SCORE≥5% in a Danish population study. METHODS: We included 21,205 adults from the Danish General Suburban Population Study. We used relative importance calculations of self-reported variables in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM. We externally validated established prediction models reporting ROC-curves for undiagnosed T2DM, pre-diabetes and SCORE. RESULTS: More than 20% of people with T2DM were undiagnosed. The 7 most important self-rated predictors in sequential order were high BMI, antihypertensive-therapy, age, cardiovascular disease, waist-circumference, fitness compared to peers and family disposition for T2DM. The Area Under the Curve for prediction of undiagnosed T2DM was 77.1 for LRAS; 75.4 for DDRS and 67.9 for FINDRISC. AUCs for SCORE was 75.1 for LRAS; 62.3 for DDRS and 54.3 for FINDRISC. CONCLUSIONS: BMI and self-reported cardiovascular disease are important risk factors for undiagnosed T2DM. LRAS performed better than DDRS and FINDRISC in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM and SCORE≥5%. SCORE performed best in predicting pre-diabetes.
Authors: Anna-Maaria Auvinen; Kaisu Luiro; Jari Jokelainen; Ilkka Järvelä; Mikael Knip; Juha Auvinen; Juha S Tapanainen Journal: Diabetologia Date: 2020-07-29 Impact factor: 10.122
Authors: Yong Du; Jens Baumert; Rebecca Paprott; Andrea Teti; Christin Heidemann; Christa Scheidt-Nave Journal: BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care Date: 2020-10
Authors: Paz Lopez-Doriga Ruiz; Laila Arnesdatter Hopstock; Anne Elise Eggen; Inger Njølstad; Guri Grimnes; Lars C Stene; Hanne L Gulseth Journal: BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care Date: 2021-11
Authors: Andreas Heltberg; Volkert Siersma; John Sahl Andersen; Christina Ellervik; Henrik Brønnum-Hansen; Jakob Kragstrup; Niels de Fine Olivarius Journal: BMC Endocr Disord Date: 2017-12-08 Impact factor: 2.763
Authors: Anders L Sørensen; Hans C Hasselbalch; Claus H Nielsen; Henrik E Poulsen; Christina Ellervik Journal: Redox Biol Date: 2018-12-21 Impact factor: 11.799