Samuel Hundessa1, Gail Williams1, Shanshan Li2, Jinpeng Guo3, Wenyi Zhang3, Yuming Guo2. 1. Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4006. 2. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne VIC 3004, Australia. 3. Institute for Disease Control and Prevention, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
Background: Meteorological factors play a crucial role in malaria transmission, but limited evidence is available from China. This study aimed to estimate the weekly associations between meteorological factors and Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model was used to examine non-linearity and delayed effects of average temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, wind speed and atmospheric pressure on malaria. Results: Average temperature was associated with P. vivax and P. falciparum cases over long ranges of lags. The effect was more immediate on P. vivax (0-6 weeks) than on P. falciparum (1-9 weeks). Relative humidity was associated with P. vivax and P. falciparum over 8-10 weeks and 5-8 weeks lag, respectively. A significant effect of wind speed on P. vivax was observed at 0-2 weeks lag, but no association was found with P. falciparum. Rainfall had a decreasing effect on P. vivax, but no association was found with P. falciparum. Sunshine hours were negatively associated with P. falciparum, but the association was unclear for P. vixax. However, the effects of atmospheric pressure on both malaria types were not significant at any lag. Conclusions: Our study highlights a substantial effect of weekly climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria transmission in China, with different lags. This provides an evidence base for health authorities in developing a malaria early-warning system.
Background: Meteorological factors play a crucial role in malaria transmission, but limited evidence is available from China. This study aimed to estimate the weekly associations between meteorological factors and Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model was used to examine non-linearity and delayed effects of average temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, wind speed and atmospheric pressure on malaria. Results: Average temperature was associated with P. vivax and P. falciparum cases over long ranges of lags. The effect was more immediate on P. vivax (0-6 weeks) than on P. falciparum (1-9 weeks). Relative humidity was associated with P. vivax and P. falciparum over 8-10 weeks and 5-8 weeks lag, respectively. A significant effect of wind speed on P. vivax was observed at 0-2 weeks lag, but no association was found with P. falciparum. Rainfall had a decreasing effect on P. vivax, but no association was found with P. falciparum. Sunshine hours were negatively associated with P. falciparum, but the association was unclear for P. vixax. However, the effects of atmospheric pressure on both malaria types were not significant at any lag. Conclusions: Our study highlights a substantial effect of weekly climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria transmission in China, with different lags. This provides an evidence base for health authorities in developing a malaria early-warning system.
Authors: Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi; Aymen M Madkhali; Khalid Y Ghailan; Ahmed A Abdulhaq; Ahmad Hassn Ghzwani; Khalid Ammash Zain; Wahib M Atroosh; Alkhansa Alshabi; Hussein A Khadashi; Majid A Darraj; Zaki M Eisa Journal: Malar J Date: 2021-07-13 Impact factor: 2.979