Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

Socioeconomic development in lake watersheds is closely related with lake nutrient pollution. As the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake has been experiencing an increase in nutrient loading and a growing risk of eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the likely impacts of the socioeconomic development of the Dongting Lake watershed on the phosphorous pollution in the lake. We estimated the contributions from different sources and sub-watersheds to the total phosphorous (TP) export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed under two most likely socioeconomic development scenarios. Moreover, we predicted the likely permissible and actual TP loadings to the Dongting Lake. Under both two scenarios, three secondary sub-watersheds-the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area-are expected to dominate the contribution to the TP export from the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-are predicted to be the major contributors to the TP loading from the entire watershed. The two scenarios are expected to have a slight difference in TP export and lake TP loading. Livestock husbandry is expected to be the predominant anthropogenic TP source in each of the sub-watersheds under both scenarios. Compared to 2010, permissible TP loading is not expected to increase but actual TP loading is predicted to grow significantly in 2020. Our study provides methodologies to identify the key sources and regions of lake nutrient loading from watersheds with complex socioeconomic context, and to reveal the potential influences of socioeconomic development on nutrient pollution in lake watersheds.