Michele Carmo1, Iacopo Barbetta2, Daniele Bissacco3, Santi Trimarchi4, Vincenzo Catanese5, Matteo Bonzini6, Stefano Bonardelli7, Piergiorgio G Settembrini5. 1. Division of Vascular Surgery, Ospedale San Carlo Borromeo, Milan, Italy. Electronic address: michele.carmo@asst-santipaolocarlo.it. 2. Division of Vascular Surgery, Ospedale San Carlo Borromeo, Milan, Italy; I Division of Surgery, Vascular Surgery Unit, Spedali Civili, Brescia, Italy. 3. Division of Vascular Surgery, Ospedale San Carlo Borromeo, Milan, Italy; II Division of Vascular Surgery, IRCCS Policlinico di San Donato, San Donato Milanese, Italy. 4. II Division of Vascular Surgery, IRCCS Policlinico di San Donato, San Donato Milanese, Italy. 5. Division of Vascular Surgery, Ospedale San Carlo Borromeo, Milan, Italy. 6. Division of Occupational Health, IRCCS Fondazione Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy. 7. I Division of Surgery, Vascular Surgery Unit, Spedali Civili, Brescia, Italy.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Recent improvement of best medical treatment for carotid stenosis has sparked a debate on the role of surgery-identification of patients who may benefit from carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is crucial to avoid overtreatment. An expected 5-year postoperative survival is one of the main selection criteria. The aim of this study was the development of a score for predicting survival of asymptomatic patients after CEA. METHODS: Our score was derived from a retrospective analysis of 648 consecutive asymptomatic patients from a single hospital. External validation of the score was then performed on a second cohort of 334 asymptomatic patients from two different hospitals in the same area. Factors associated with reduced postoperative survival within the derivation cohort (DC) were identified and tested for statistical significance. Each selected factor was assigned a score proportional to its β coefficient: 1 point for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, and lack of statin treatment; 4 points for age 70 to 79 years and creatinine concentration ≥1.5 mg/dL; 8 points for age ≥80 years and dialysis. The DC was divided into four groups based on individual scores: group 1, 0 to 3 points; group 2, 4 to 7 points; group 3, 8 to 11 points; and group 4, ≥12 points. Group-specific survival curves were calculated. The validation cohort (VC) was stratified according to the score. Survival of each of the four risk groups within the VC was compared with its analogue from the DC. RESULTS: Median follow-up of the DC and VC was, respectively, 56 and 65 months. Intercohort comparison of 5-year survival was 84.7% ± 1.7% vs 85.2% ± 2% (P = .41). Group-specific 5-year survival within the DC was 97% ± 1.5% (group 1), 88.4% ± 2.2% (group 2), 69.6% ± 4.7% (group 3), and 48.1% ± 13.5% (group 4; P < .0001). Five-year survival within the VC was 95.5% ± 2% (group 1), 89.5% ± 2.7% (group 2), 65% ± 6.1% (group 3), and 44.8% ± 14.1% (group 4; P < .0001). Intercohort comparison of group-specific survival curves showed close similarity throughout the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our score is a simple clinical tool that allows a quick and reliable prediction of survival in asymptomatic patients who are candidates for CEA. This selective approach is crucial to avoid unnecessary surgery on patients who are less likely to survive long enough to experience the benefits of this preventive procedure.
OBJECTIVE: Recent improvement of best medical treatment for carotid stenosis has sparked a debate on the role of surgery-identification of patients who may benefit from carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is crucial to avoid overtreatment. An expected 5-year postoperative survival is one of the main selection criteria. The aim of this study was the development of a score for predicting survival of asymptomatic patients after CEA. METHODS: Our score was derived from a retrospective analysis of 648 consecutive asymptomatic patients from a single hospital. External validation of the score was then performed on a second cohort of 334 asymptomatic patients from two different hospitals in the same area. Factors associated with reduced postoperative survival within the derivation cohort (DC) were identified and tested for statistical significance. Each selected factor was assigned a score proportional to its β coefficient: 1 point for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, and lack of statin treatment; 4 points for age 70 to 79 years and creatinine concentration ≥1.5 mg/dL; 8 points for age ≥80 years and dialysis. The DC was divided into four groups based on individual scores: group 1, 0 to 3 points; group 2, 4 to 7 points; group 3, 8 to 11 points; and group 4, ≥12 points. Group-specific survival curves were calculated. The validation cohort (VC) was stratified according to the score. Survival of each of the four risk groups within the VC was compared with its analogue from the DC. RESULTS: Median follow-up of the DC and VC was, respectively, 56 and 65 months. Intercohort comparison of 5-year survival was 84.7% ± 1.7% vs 85.2% ± 2% (P = .41). Group-specific 5-year survival within the DC was 97% ± 1.5% (group 1), 88.4% ± 2.2% (group 2), 69.6% ± 4.7% (group 3), and 48.1% ± 13.5% (group 4; P < .0001). Five-year survival within the VC was 95.5% ± 2% (group 1), 89.5% ± 2.7% (group 2), 65% ± 6.1% (group 3), and 44.8% ± 14.1% (group 4; P < .0001). Intercohort comparison of group-specific survival curves showed close similarity throughout the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our score is a simple clinical tool that allows a quick and reliable prediction of survival in asymptomatic patients who are candidates for CEA. This selective approach is crucial to avoid unnecessary surgery on patients who are less likely to survive long enough to experience the benefits of this preventive procedure.
Authors: Michiel H F Poorthuis; Reinier A R Herings; Kirsten Dansey; Johanna A A Damen; Jacoba P Greving; Marc L Schermerhorn; Gert J de Borst Journal: Stroke Date: 2021-10-12 Impact factor: 7.914
Authors: Kosmas I Paraskevas; Dimitri P Mikhailidis; Hediyeh Baradaran; Alun H Davies; Hans-Henning Eckstein; Gianluca Faggioli; Jose Fernandes E Fernandes; Ajay Gupta; Mateja K Jezovnik; Stavros K Kakkos; Niki Katsiki; M Eline Kooi; Gaetano Lanza; Christos D Liapis; Ian M Loftus; Antoine Millon; Andrew N Nicolaides; Pavel Poredos; Rodolfo Pini; Jean-Baptiste Ricco; Tatjana Rundek; Luca Saba; Francesco Spinelli; Francesco Stilo; Sherif Sultan; Clark J Zeebregts; Seemant Chaturvedi Journal: J Stroke Date: 2021-05-31 Impact factor: 6.967