Assessing the prospects for physician supply and demand in Canada: Wishing it was rocket science.

"It's not rocket science" is an often used phrase to describe tasks that are not very difficult. Although rocketry has proven to be an exacting science with highly predictable results, the same cannot be said for physician workforce planning in Canada. The "boom" in physician supply in the 1960s and 1970s was followed by a "bust" in the early 1990s and a further boom in the 2000s. A large generational shift in the physician population is anticipated between now and 2030; the proportion of "boomers" (1946-1964) will drop from 43% to 16% of the practising profession. Canada has not been alone in increasing physician supply. Any judgement as to whether too many or too few physicians are being trained must consider the drivers and mitigators of both supply and demand. Although there are current concerns about a shortage of practice opportunities for some specialties, the available data do not indicate a physician surplus on the horizon in Canada.