Land use change and its driving forces toward mutual conversion in Zhangjiakou City, a farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China.

Land use/cover change (LUCC), a local environmental issue of global importance, and its driving forces have been crucial issues in geography and environmental research. Previous studies primarily focused on major driving factors in various land use types, with few explorations of differences between driving forces of mutual land use type conversions, especially in fragile eco-environments. In this study, Zhangjiakou City, in a farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, was taken as an example to analyze land use change between 1989 and 2015, and explore the driving forces of mutual land use type conversions using canonical correlation analysis. Satellite images and government statistics, including social-economic and natural data, were used as sources. Arable land, forestland, and grassland formed the main land use structure. From 1989 to 2015 forestland, orchard land, and construction land significantly increased, while arable land, grassland, unused land, and water areas decreased. Conversions from grassland to forestland; from arable land to orchard land, forestland and construction land; and from unused land to grassland and forestland were the primary land use changes. Among these, the conversion from grassland to forestland had the highest ranking. Average annual precipitation and per capita net income of rural residents positively affected the conversion of arable land to forestland and unused land to grassland. GDP, total population, and urbanization rate contributed most significantly to converting arable land to construction land; total retail sales of social consumer goods, average annual temperature, and GDP had important positive influences in converting arable land to orchard land.