CO2 evasion from boreal lakes: Revised estimate, drivers of spatial variability, and future projections.

Lakes (including reservoirs) are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle, as acknowledged by the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. In the context of lakes, the boreal region is disproportionately important contributing to 27% of the worldwide lake area, despite representing just 14% of global land surface area. In this study, we used a statistical approach to derive a prediction equation for the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 ) in lakes as a function of lake area, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and precipitation (r2  = .56), and to create the first high-resolution, circumboreal map (0.5°) of lake pCO2 . The map of pCO2 was combined with lake area from the recently published GLOWABO database and three different estimates of the gas transfer velocity k to produce a resulting map of CO2 evasion (FCO2 ). For the boreal region, we estimate an average, lake area weighted, pCO2 of 966 (678-1,325) μatm and a total FCO2 of 189 (74-347) Tg C year-1 , and evaluate the corresponding uncertainties based on Monte Carlo simulation. Our estimate of FCO2 is approximately twofold greater than previous estimates, as a result of methodological and data source differences. We use our results along with published estimates of the other C fluxes through inland waters to derive a C budget for the boreal region, and find that FCO2 from lakes is the most significant flux of the land-ocean aquatic continuum, and of a similar magnitude as emissions from forest fires. Using the model and applying it to spatially resolved projections of terrestrial NPP and precipitation while keeping everything else constant, we predict a 107% increase in boreal lake FCO2 under emission scenario RCP8.5 by 2100. Our projections are largely driven by increases in terrestrial NPP over the same period, showing the very close connection between the terrestrial and aquatic C cycle.