Natural course and predictors of severe disability and death in Thai patients with dementia.

More than half of patients with dementia lived in countries with low and middle incomes. However, there have been few studies on the natural course of disease in these countries. The purpose of this study was to study the natural course and the predictive factors of advanced stage and death in Thai patients with dementia. Patients with dementia who were treated in neurologic and psychiatric clinic from September 2004 to February 2016, were included. Data about natural course of diseases, behavioral and psychological symptoms in dementia (BPSD) and complications were studied. 207 patients were included. Mean age was 77years old. Mean Thai Mental State Examination (TMSE) was 17.5. Alzheimer's disease was the most common cause of dementia (55%). With the mean follow-up of 39months (range from 2 to 126months), 64% of the patients had BPSD. Sixty-two patients (30%) had complications required admission. Seven patients died. Fifty-four patients (29%) ended in the advanced stage of dementia. Mean duration from diagnosis to the advanced stage was 49months. Complications that required admission usually occurred in moderate to severe dementia and were strongly associated with the advanced stage or death (OR 6.1, 95%CI 2.57-14.49, p-value<0.0001). Alzheimer's disease was the most common cause of dementia in the study. Most demented patients presented in moderate severity of dementia. Mean duration from diagnosis to the advanced stage of dementia was approximate 4-5years. Complications required admissions related to the progression to advanced stage or death.