The Changing Presentation of Paget's Disease of Bone in Australia, A High Prevalence Region.

Studies from several countries suggest that the incidence of Paget's disease of bone (PDB) and the severity of newly diagnosed cases are declining. The aim of this study was to examine secular changes in clinical presentation of PDB in Australia, which historically had the highest prevalence outside the United Kingdom. The participants were 293 patients (61% male) diagnosed between 1956 and 2013 with details recorded in the database of the Paget's Disease Research Group of Western Australia. The mean age at diagnosis was 62 years (range 28-90); 26% of participants had a family history of PDB and 11% had Sequestosome 1 (SQSTM1) mutations. After adjustment for covariates (SQSTM1 mutation status, family history, country of birth, smoking and dog exposure), there was a significant positive relationship between year of diagnosis and age at diagnosis (P < 0.001) and significant negative relationships between year of diagnosis and both pre-treatment total plasma alkaline phosphatase activity (ALP) and number of involved bones (P < 0.001 for each). Patients with SQSTM1 mutations had more extensive disease (P < 0.001) and higher pre-treatment ALP (P = 0.013). In subgroup analyses, relationships between year of diagnosis and each of age at diagnosis, number of involved bones and ALP were similar in patients with sporadic or familial disease, and in patients with and without SQSTM1 mutations. We conclude that the severity of PDB in Western Australia has declined over recent decades. This is likely to reflect altered exposure to one or more environmental agents involved in pathogenesis.