Revisiting myocardial necrosis biomarkers: assessment of the effect of conditioning therapies on infarct size by kinetic modelling.

Infarct size is a major predictor of subsequent cardiovascular events following ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and is frequently used in clinical trials focused on cardioprotection. Approximately assessed through serial blood sampling, it can be accurately measured by imaging techniques, e.g. cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, which is the actual gold standard for infarct size determination but with limited availability in daily practice. We developed a mathematical biomarker kinetic model based on pharmacokinetic compartment models to easily and accurately estimate infarct size using individual data from five clinical trials evaluating the impact of conditioning therapies in STEMI between 2005 and 2013. Serial blood sampling was available in all studies with data regarding creatine kinase (CK), CK specific of cardiomyocytes (CK-MB) and cardiac troponin I. Our model allowed an accurate estimation of biomarker release as a surrogate marker of infarct size and a powerful assessment of conditioning treatments. This biomarker kinetic modelling approach identified CK-MB as the most accurate biomarker in determining infarct size and supports the development of limited sampling strategies that estimate total biomarker amount released with a lower number of samples. It will certainly be a useful add-on to future studies in the field of STEMI and cardioprotection.