Mickael Hiligsmann1, Jean-Yves Reginster2. 1. a Department of Health Services Research , CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University , Maastricht , The Netherlands. 2. b Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics , University of Liege , Liege , Belgium.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of research that projects the public health and economic impact of healthcare interventions in the future. In this study, we aimed to estimate the public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060. METHODS: We used a previously validated Markov microsimulation model that was designed to assess the public health and economic impact of dairy products for fracture prevention in the French general population aged over 60 years in the year 2015. RESULTS: The expected benefit (in terms of fractures prevented) of the recommended intake of dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake is expected to increase by 63% in 2040 and by 85% in 2060. The cost per quality-adjusted life years gained of the appropriate intake of dairy products is expected to decrease from €58,244 in 2015 to €42,616 in 2060. CONCLUSION: The potential public health and economic benefits of vitamin D fortified dairy products is expected to substantially increase in the future, especially in the population aged over 80 years. Decision makers should be aware of the current and future potential benefits of dairy products to protect bone fractures.
BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of research that projects the public health and economic impact of healthcare interventions in the future. In this study, we aimed to estimate the public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060. METHODS: We used a previously validated Markov microsimulation model that was designed to assess the public health and economic impact of dairy products for fracture prevention in the French general population aged over 60 years in the year 2015. RESULTS: The expected benefit (in terms of fractures prevented) of the recommended intake of dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake is expected to increase by 63% in 2040 and by 85% in 2060. The cost per quality-adjusted life years gained of the appropriate intake of dairy products is expected to decrease from €58,244 in 2015 to €42,616 in 2060. CONCLUSION: The potential public health and economic benefits of vitamin D fortified dairy products is expected to substantially increase in the future, especially in the population aged over 80 years. Decision makers should be aware of the current and future potential benefits of dairy products to protect bone fractures.
Entities:
Keywords:
Cost-effectiveness; France; dairy products; fractures; osteoporosis; projections; public health
Authors: Stefan Pilz; Winfried März; Kevin D Cashman; Mairead E Kiely; Susan J Whiting; Michael F Holick; William B Grant; Pawel Pludowski; Mickael Hiligsmann; Christian Trummer; Verena Schwetz; Elisabeth Lerchbaum; Marlene Pandis; Andreas Tomaschitz; Martin R Grübler; Martin Gaksch; Nicolas Verheyen; Bruce W Hollis; Lars Rejnmark; Spyridon N Karras; Andreas Hahn; Heike A Bischoff-Ferrari; Jörg Reichrath; Rolf Jorde; Ibrahim Elmadfa; Reinhold Vieth; Robert Scragg; Mona S Calvo; Natasja M van Schoor; Roger Bouillon; Paul Lips; Suvi T Itkonen; Adrian R Martineau; Christel Lamberg-Allardt; Armin Zittermann Journal: Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) Date: 2018-07-17 Impact factor: 5.555