Alan C Kinlaw1,2, Til Stürmer3,2, Jennifer L Lund2, Lars Pedersen4, Michael D Kappelman5, Julie L Daniels2, Trine Frøslev4, Christina D Mack2,6, Henrik Toft Sørensen4,7. 1. Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, akinlaw@unc.edu. 2. Departments of Epidemiology and. 3. Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research. 4. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark. 5. Pediatrics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina. 6. QuintilesIMS, Durham, North Carolina; and. 7. Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We examined 2 birth cohort effects on antibiotic prescribing during the first year of life (henceforth, infancy) in Denmark: (1) the birth season effect on timing and overall occurrence of antibiotic prescribing, and (2) the birth year effect amid emerging nationwide pneumococcal vaccination programs and changing prescribing guidelines. METHODS: We linked data for all live births in Denmark from 2004 to 2012 (N = 561 729) across the National Health Service Prescription Database, Medical Birth Registry, and Civil Registration System. Across birth season and birth year cohorts, we estimated 1-year risk, rate, and burden of redeemed antibiotic prescriptions during infancy. We used interrupted time series methods to assess prescribing trends across birth year cohorts. Graphical displays of all birth cohort effect data are included. RESULTS: The 1-year risk of having at least 1 redeemed antibiotic prescription during infancy was 39.5% (99% confidence interval [CI]: 39.3% to 39.6%). The hazard of a first prescription increased with age throughout infancy and varied by season; subsequently, Kaplan-Meier-derived risk functions varied by birth season cohort. After rollout of a first vaccination program and new antibiotic prescribing guidelines, 1-year risk decreased by 4.4% over 14 months (99% CI: 3.4% to 5.5%); it decreased again after rollout of a second vaccination program by 6.9% over 3 years (99% CI: 4.4% to 9.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In Denmark, birth season and birth year cohort effects influenced timing and risk of antibiotic prescribing during infancy. Future studies of antibiotic stewardship, effectiveness, and safety in children should consider these cohort effects, which may render some children inherently more susceptible than others to downstream antibiotic effects.
OBJECTIVES: We examined 2 birth cohort effects on antibiotic prescribing during the first year of life (henceforth, infancy) in Denmark: (1) the birth season effect on timing and overall occurrence of antibiotic prescribing, and (2) the birth year effect amid emerging nationwide pneumococcal vaccination programs and changing prescribing guidelines. METHODS: We linked data for all live births in Denmark from 2004 to 2012 (N = 561 729) across the National Health Service Prescription Database, Medical Birth Registry, and Civil Registration System. Across birth season and birth year cohorts, we estimated 1-year risk, rate, and burden of redeemed antibiotic prescriptions during infancy. We used interrupted time series methods to assess prescribing trends across birth year cohorts. Graphical displays of all birth cohort effect data are included. RESULTS: The 1-year risk of having at least 1 redeemed antibiotic prescription during infancy was 39.5% (99% confidence interval [CI]: 39.3% to 39.6%). The hazard of a first prescription increased with age throughout infancy and varied by season; subsequently, Kaplan-Meier-derived risk functions varied by birth season cohort. After rollout of a first vaccination program and new antibiotic prescribing guidelines, 1-year risk decreased by 4.4% over 14 months (99% CI: 3.4% to 5.5%); it decreased again after rollout of a second vaccination program by 6.9% over 3 years (99% CI: 4.4% to 9.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In Denmark, birth season and birth year cohort effects influenced timing and risk of antibiotic prescribing during infancy. Future studies of antibiotic stewardship, effectiveness, and safety in children should consider these cohort effects, which may render some children inherently more susceptible than others to downstream antibiotic effects.
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