Kenneth S Kendler1, Henrik Ohlsson2, Alexis C Edwards3, Jan Sundquist4, Kristina Sundquist5. 1. Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA; Department of Human and Molecular Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA. Electronic address: kenneth.kendler@vcuhealth.org. 2. Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden. Electronic address: Henrik.ohlsson@med.lu.se. 3. Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA. Electronic address: alexis.edwards@vcuhealth.org. 4. Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden. Electronic address: jan.sundquist@med.lu.se. 5. Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden. Electronic address: Kristina.sundquist@med.lu.se.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We attempt to develop a relatively comprehensive structural model of risk factors for drug abuse (DA) in Swedish men that illustrates developmental and mediational processes. METHODS: We examined 20 risk factors for DA in 48,369 men undergoing conscription examinations in 1969-70 followed until 2011 when 2.34% (n=1134) of them had DA ascertained in medical, criminal and pharmacy registries. Risk factors were organized into four developmental tiers reflecting i) birth, ii) childhood/early adolescence, iii) late adolescence, and iv) young adulthood. Structural equational model fitting was performed using Mplus. RESULTS: The best fitting model explained 47.8% of the variance in DA. The most prominent predictors, in order, were: early adolescent externalizing behavior, early adult criminal behavior, early adolescent internalizing behavior, early adult unemployment, early adult alcohol use disorder, and late adolescent drug use. Two major inter-connecting pathways emerged reflecting i) genetic/familial risk and ii) family dysfunction and psychosocial adversity. Generated on a first and tested on a second random half of the sample, a model from these variables predicted DA with an ROC area under the curve of 83.6%. Fifty-nine percent of DA cases arose from subjects in the top decile of risk. CONCLUSIONS: DA in men is a highly multifactorial syndrome with risk arising from familial-genetic, psychosocial, behavioral and psychological factors acting and interacting over development. Among the multiple predisposing factors for DA, a range of psychosocial adversities, externalizing psychopathology and lack of social constraints in early adulthood are predominant.
BACKGROUND: We attempt to develop a relatively comprehensive structural model of risk factors for drug abuse (DA) in Swedish men that illustrates developmental and mediational processes. METHODS: We examined 20 risk factors for DA in 48,369 men undergoing conscription examinations in 1969-70 followed until 2011 when 2.34% (n=1134) of them had DA ascertained in medical, criminal and pharmacy registries. Risk factors were organized into four developmental tiers reflecting i) birth, ii) childhood/early adolescence, iii) late adolescence, and iv) young adulthood. Structural equational model fitting was performed using Mplus. RESULTS: The best fitting model explained 47.8% of the variance in DA. The most prominent predictors, in order, were: early adolescent externalizing behavior, early adult criminal behavior, early adolescent internalizing behavior, early adult unemployment, early adult alcohol use disorder, and late adolescent drug use. Two major inter-connecting pathways emerged reflecting i) genetic/familial risk and ii) family dysfunction and psychosocial adversity. Generated on a first and tested on a second random half of the sample, a model from these variables predicted DA with an ROC area under the curve of 83.6%. Fifty-nine percent of DA cases arose from subjects in the top decile of risk. CONCLUSIONS: DA in men is a highly multifactorial syndrome with risk arising from familial-genetic, psychosocial, behavioral and psychological factors acting and interacting over development. Among the multiple predisposing factors for DA, a range of psychosocial adversities, externalizing psychopathology and lack of social constraints in early adulthood are predominant.
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