CLINICO-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING SYSTEMIC ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION AT HIGH ALTITUDE THROUGH MATHEMATICAL MODELLING.

A population based hybrid design combining element of cohort and cross-sectional approach was used to develop a simple clinical algorithm to predict individual probability of developing hypertension (systolic BP > 140 mm Hg and/or diastolic BP > 90 mmHg). 3615 soldiers initially normotensive at the time of induction into high altitude, were studied by systematic random sampling. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed a high significant association between hypertension and age, body mass index (BMI), tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Using the constant/coefficient values obtained from the logistic model and the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, the following predictive rule was developed - To the age in years, add (BMIx 3.86); also add 5.53 if he is a smoker; and add 19.81 if he consumes alcohol. If the total exceeds 142, the individual is at high risk of developing hypertension. This algorithm carries a sensitivity of 68.2% and specificity of 78.5%.