Guadalupe Ayora-Talavera1, Gerardo Montalvo-Zurbia Flores2, Jesus Gómez-Carballo3, Refugio González-Losa4, Laura Conde-Ferraez5, Marylin Puerto-Solís6, Irma López-Martínez7, Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez8, Gisela Barrera-Badillo9, Rodolfo Acuna-Soto10, Alicia A Livinski11, Wladimir J Alonso12. 1. Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Electronic address: talavera@correo.uady.mx. 2. Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Electronic address: gerardomontalvozf@gmail.com. 3. Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Electronic address: jesus.gomez@correo.uady.mx. 4. Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Electronic address: glosa@correo.uady.mx. 5. Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Electronic address: laura.conde@correo.uady.mx. 6. Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Electronic address: psolis@correo.uady.mx. 7. Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos "Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez" (InDRE), Secretaría de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda 177, Lomas de Plateros, 01480 Álvaro Obregón, Mexico City, Mexico. Electronic address: irma.lopez@salud.gob.mx. 8. Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos "Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez" (InDRE), Secretaría de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda 177, Lomas de Plateros, 01480 Álvaro Obregón, Mexico City, Mexico. Electronic address: alberto.diaz@salud.gob.mx. 9. Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos "Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez" (InDRE), Secretaría de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda 177, Lomas de Plateros, 01480 Álvaro Obregón, Mexico City, Mexico. Electronic address: gisela.barrera20@yahoo.com.mx. 10. Departamento de Microbiologia y Parasitologia, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, Avenida Insurgentes Sur 3000, Del. Coyoacán, C.P. 04510 Ciudad de México, Mexico. Electronic address: acunasoto.rodolfo@gmail.com. 11. National Institute of Health Library, Division of Library Services, Office of Research Services, 10 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. Electronic address: alicia.livinski@nih.gov. 12. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 16 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. Electronic address: wladimir.j.alonso@gmail.com.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign. OBJECTIVE: To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness. METHODS: We studied the seasonality of influenza throughoutMexico by modeling virological and mortality data.De-trended time series of each Mexican state were analyzed by Fourier decomposition to describe the amplitude and timing of annual influenza epidemic cycles and to compare with each the timing of the WHO's Northern and Southern Hemispheric vaccination schedule. FINDINGS: The timings of the primary (major) peaks of both virological and mortality data for most Mexican states are well aligned with the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) and vaccine schedule. However, influenza peaks in September in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. Influenza-related mortality also peaks in September in Quintana Roo and Yucatan whereas it peaks in May in Campeche. As the current timing of vaccination in Mexico is between October and November, more than half of the annual influenza cases have already occurred in the Yucatan Peninsula states by the time the Northern Hemispheric vaccine is delivered and administered. CONCLUSION: The current Northern Hemispheric influenza calendar adopted for Mexico is not optimal for the Yucatan Peninsula states thereby likely reducing the effectiveness of the immunization of the population. We recommend that Mexico tailor its immunization strategy to better reflect its climatologic and epidemiological diversity and adopt the WHO Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine and schedule for the Yucatan Peninsula.
INTRODUCTION: While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign. OBJECTIVE: To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness. METHODS: We studied the seasonality of influenza throughoutMexico by modeling virological and mortality data.De-trended time series of each Mexican state were analyzed by Fourier decomposition to describe the amplitude and timing of annual influenza epidemic cycles and to compare with each the timing of the WHO's Northern and Southern Hemispheric vaccination schedule. FINDINGS: The timings of the primary (major) peaks of both virological and mortality data for most Mexican states are well aligned with the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) and vaccine schedule. However, influenza peaks in September in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. Influenza-related mortality also peaks in September in Quintana Roo and Yucatan whereas it peaks in May in Campeche. As the current timing of vaccination in Mexico is between October and November, more than half of the annual influenza cases have already occurred in the Yucatan Peninsula states by the time the Northern Hemispheric vaccine is delivered and administered. CONCLUSION: The current Northern Hemispheric influenza calendar adopted for Mexico is not optimal for the Yucatan Peninsula states thereby likely reducing the effectiveness of the immunization of the population. We recommend that Mexico tailor its immunization strategy to better reflect its climatologic and epidemiological diversity and adopt the WHO Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine and schedule for the Yucatan Peninsula.
Authors: Martha I Nelson; James O Lloyd-Smith; Lone Simonsen; Andrew Rambaut; Edward C Holmes; Gerardo Chowell; Mark A Miller; David J Spiro; Bryan Grenfell; Cécile Viboud Journal: Epidemics Date: 2018-10-23 Impact factor: 4.396
Authors: Nina I Mendez-Dominguez; Luis O Bobadilla-Rosado; Lizbeth S Fajardo-Ruiz; Andrea Camara-Salazar; Salvador Gomez-Carro Journal: Braz J Infect Dis Date: 2019-09-25 Impact factor: 3.257