Prediction of outcome in Graves' disease after carbimazole treatment.

In a prospective study to determine which factors would predict remission or relapse, 65 patients with hyperthyroid Graves' disease were treated for six months with a blocking replacement regimen of carbimazole, 40 mg daily, and triiodothyronine (T3). They were followed for one year after stopping treatment, by which time 32 (49 per cent) had relapsed. Although the treatment protocol, relapse rate and frequency of the HLA-DR3 antigen in this population were similar to those of a regionally separate Graves' population investigated previously, the predictive value of HLA-DR3 status together with thyroid stimulating antibody (TSAB) levels was strikingly different. In the present study there was no significantly abnormal distribution of any HLA antigen in the relapse group compared with those patients who achieved remission. Thyroid stimulating antibodies were detected in 62 patients (95 per cent) and fell significantly (p less than 0.05) after carbimazole treatment, irrespective of DR3 status or outcome; TSAB levels only became undetectable in nine patients (28 per cent) who subsequently relapsed and in nine patients (30 per cent) who maintained remission. T3-suppressed 20 min 123I uptake fell equally after treatment in the relapse and remission groups but continued to fall thereafter in the group which maintained remission. In these patients, 123I uptake was significantly lower at the end of the study period than at the end of treatment (p less than 0.05). Serum free T4 levels were higher before treatment in the patients who later relapsed than in those whose disease remitted (p less than 0.02). This proved the only significant marker associated with outcome but was of little predictive value in any patient. This study highlights the problem in predicting the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment, since even within the same country under similar conditions, divergent results have been obtained. It appears that the loci controlling the immune response in Graves' disease are likely to include genes lying outside the HLA-DR region. The results also suggest that the immunological effects of antithyroid drugs are maintained after stopping treatment in those patients whose disease remits.