BACKGROUND: Conditional survival is the life expectancy from a point in time for a patient who has survived a specific period after presentation. The aim of the study was to estimate conditional survival for patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma. METHODS: Patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma from two academic hospitals in the Netherlands between 2002 and 2012 were assessed. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with overall survival. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method to evaluate factors associated with overall survival. RESULTS: In total, 572 patients were included. Overall survival was 42% at one year and 6% at three years. The conditional chance of surviving three years was 15% at 1 year and increased to 38% at 2 years. Independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival were age ≥65 years, tumor size >3 cm on imaging, bilirubin levels (>250 μmol/L), CA19-9 level at presentation (>1000 U/ml), and suspected distant metastases on imaging. The conditional survival of patients with and without these prognostic factors was comparable after patients survived the first two or more years. CONCLUSION: The conditional chance of surviving for patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma increases with time. Poor prognostic factors become less relevant once patients have survived two years.
BACKGROUND: Conditional survival is the life expectancy from a point in time for a patient who has survived a specific period after presentation. The aim of the study was to estimate conditional survival for patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma. METHODS:Patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma from two academic hospitals in the Netherlands between 2002 and 2012 were assessed. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with overall survival. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method to evaluate factors associated with overall survival. RESULTS: In total, 572 patients were included. Overall survival was 42% at one year and 6% at three years. The conditional chance of surviving three years was 15% at 1 year and increased to 38% at 2 years. Independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival were age ≥65 years, tumor size >3 cm on imaging, bilirubin levels (>250 μmol/L), CA19-9 level at presentation (>1000 U/ml), and suspected distant metastases on imaging. The conditional survival of patients with and without these prognostic factors was comparable after patients survived the first two or more years. CONCLUSION: The conditional chance of surviving for patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma increases with time. Poor prognostic factors become less relevant once patients have survived two years.
Authors: Bas Groot Koerkamp; Stefan Buettner; Jaynee J A Vugts; Marcia P Gaspersz; Eva Roos; Lotte C Franken; Pim B Olthof; Robert J S Coelen; Jeroen L A van Vugt; Tim A Labeur; Lieke Brouwer; Marc G H Besselink; Jan N M IJzermans; Sarwa Darwish Murad; Thomas M van Gulik; Jeroen de Jonge; Wojciech G Polak; Olivier R C Busch; Joris L Erdmann Journal: Ann Surg Oncol Date: 2020-09-08 Impact factor: 5.344
Authors: David M de Jong; Jeska A Fritzsche; Amber S Audhoe; Suzanne S L Yi; Marco J Bruno; Rogier P Voermans; Lydi M J W van Driel Journal: Cancers (Basel) Date: 2022-04-21 Impact factor: 6.639
Authors: Anne-Marleen van Keulen; Pim B Olthof; Matteo Cescon; Alfredo Guglielmi; William R Jarnagin; Silvio Nadalin; Johann Pratschke; Francesca Ratti; Roberto I Troisi; Bas Groot Koerkamp; Stefan Buettner; Joris I Erdmann Journal: Cancers (Basel) Date: 2021-12-13 Impact factor: 6.639