Development of a statistical oil spill model for risk assessment.

To gain a better understanding of the impacts from potential risk sources, we developed an oil spill model using probabilistic method, which simulates numerous oil spill trajectories under varying environmental conditions. The statistical results were quantified from hypothetical oil spills under multiple scenarios, including area affected probability, mean oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface exposed to floating oil. The three sub-indices together with marine area vulnerability are merged to compute the composite index, characterizing the spatial distribution of risk degree. Integral of the index can be used to identify the overall risk from an emission source. The developed model has been successfully applied in comparison to and selection of an appropriate oil port construction location adjacent to a marine protected area for Phoca largha in China. The results highlight the importance of selection of candidates before project construction, since that risk estimation from two adjacent potential sources may turn out to be significantly different regarding hydrodynamic conditions and eco-environmental sensitivity.