Giovanni Grazzi1, Gianni Mazzoni2, Jonathan Myers3, Luciano Codecà2, Giovanni Pasanisi4, Simona Mandini2, Massimo Piepoli5, Stefano Volpato6, Francesco Conconi2, Giorgio Chiaranda7. 1. Center of Biomedical Studies Applied to Sport, University of Ferrara, Italy; Public Health Department, AUSL Ferrara, Italy. Electronic address: giovanni.grazzi@unife.it. 2. Center of Biomedical Studies Applied to Sport, University of Ferrara, Italy; Public Health Department, AUSL Ferrara, Italy. 3. Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, USA; Stanford University School of Medicine, USA. 4. Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, "Delta" Hospital, AUSL Ferrara, Italy. 5. Heart Failure Unit, Cardiology Department, Hospital G. Da Saliceto, Italy. 6. Department of Medical Sciences, University of Ferrara, Italy. 7. General Directorship for Public Health and Integration Policy, Italy.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To determine the prognostic ability of established percent-predicted equations of peak oxygen consumption (%PRED) estimated by a moderate submaximal walking test in a large cohort of outpatients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). DESIGN: Population-based prospective study. METHODS: A total of 1442 male patients aged 25-85 years at baseline, underwent a moderate perceptually-regulated (11-13 on the 6-20 Borg scale) treadmill walk (1k-TWT) for peak oxygen consumption estimation (VO2 peak). %PRED was derived from ACSM, Ades et al, Morris et al, and the Wasserman/Hansen equations, and their prognostic performance was assessed. Overall mortality was the end point. Participants were divided into quartiles of %PRED, and mortality risk was estimated using a Cox regression model. RESULTS: During a median 8.2year follow-up, 167 all-cause deaths occurred. The Wasserman/Hansen equation provided the highest prognostic value. Mortality rate was lower across increasing quartiles of %PRED. Compared to the first quartile, after adjustment for confounders, the mortality risk decreased for the second, third, and fourth quartiles, with HRs of 0.75 (95% CI 0.44-1.29, p=0.29), 0.67 (95% CI 0.38-1.18, p=0.17), and 0.37 (95% CI 0.10-0.78, p=0.009), respectively (p for trend <0.0001). Each 1% increase in %PRED conferred a 4% improvement in survival. CONCLUSIONS: The percent-predicted VO2 peak determined by Wasserman/Hansen equations applied to the 1k-TWT is inversely and significantly related to survival in cardiac outpatients. The 1k-TWT is a simple and useful tool for stratifying mortality risk in patients participating in secondary prevention programs.
OBJECTIVES: To determine the prognostic ability of established percent-predicted equations of peak oxygen consumption (%PRED) estimated by a moderate submaximal walking test in a large cohort of outpatients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). DESIGN: Population-based prospective study. METHODS: A total of 1442 male patients aged 25-85 years at baseline, underwent a moderate perceptually-regulated (11-13 on the 6-20 Borg scale) treadmill walk (1k-TWT) for peak oxygen consumption estimation (VO2 peak). %PRED was derived from ACSM, Ades et al, Morris et al, and the Wasserman/Hansen equations, and their prognostic performance was assessed. Overall mortality was the end point. Participants were divided into quartiles of %PRED, and mortality risk was estimated using a Cox regression model. RESULTS: During a median 8.2year follow-up, 167 all-cause deaths occurred. The Wasserman/Hansen equation provided the highest prognostic value. Mortality rate was lower across increasing quartiles of %PRED. Compared to the first quartile, after adjustment for confounders, the mortality risk decreased for the second, third, and fourth quartiles, with HRs of 0.75 (95% CI 0.44-1.29, p=0.29), 0.67 (95% CI 0.38-1.18, p=0.17), and 0.37 (95% CI 0.10-0.78, p=0.009), respectively (p for trend <0.0001). Each 1% increase in %PRED conferred a 4% improvement in survival. CONCLUSIONS: The percent-predicted VO2 peak determined by Wasserman/Hansen equations applied to the 1k-TWT is inversely and significantly related to survival in cardiac outpatients. The 1k-TWT is a simple and useful tool for stratifying mortality risk in patients participating in secondary prevention programs.