Choice of reserve capacity by hospitals: a problem for prospective payment.

This contribution analyzes the impact of prospective payment on hospital decisions with regard to reserve capacity, using Swiss hospital data covering the years 2004-2009. This data set is unique because it permits distinguishing of institutional characteristics (e.g., ownership status) from the mode of payment as determinants of hospital efficiency, due to the fact that some Swiss cantons introduced prospective payment early while others waited for federal legislation to be enacted in 2012. Since a hospital's choice of reserve capacity depends also on the risk preferences of management while affecting the cost function, heterogeneity is predicted even in the presence of identical technology and factor prices. For estimating hospitals' marginal costs, we employ the flexible representation of risk preferences by Pope and Chavas [Am J Agric Econ 76, 196-204 (1994)]. Production uncertainty is measured as the difference between actual admissions and admissions predicted by an autoregressive moving average model. Its effect on hospital cost is analyzed using a multilevel stochastic cost frontier model with random coefficients reflecting unobserved differences in technology. Public hospitals are found to opt for a higher probability of meeting unexpected demand, as predicted. Their operating cost is 1.1% higher than for private hospitals and even 1.9% higher than for teaching hospitals, creating an incentive to turn away patients or to keep them waiting for treatment.