Is scaffold hopping a reliable indicator for the ability of computational methods to identify structurally diverse active compounds?

Computational scaffold hopping aims to identify core structure replacements in active compounds. To evaluate scaffold hopping potential from a principal point of view, regardless of the computational methods that are applied, a global analysis of conventional scaffolds in analog series from compound activity classes was carried out. The majority of analog series was found to contain multiple scaffolds, thus enabling the detection of intra-series scaffold hops among closely related compounds. More than 1000 activity classes were found to contain increasing proportions of multi-scaffold analog series. Thus, using such activity classes for scaffold hopping analysis is likely to overestimate the scaffold hopping (core structure replacement) potential of computational methods, due to an abundance of artificial scaffold hops that are possible within analog series.