Simulation of the spatial stresses due to territorial land development on Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve using a GIS-based assessment model.

This study aimed at assessing the stresses from land development in or around Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve (YRDNR) and identifying the impacted areas. Major land development types (reservoirs, pond, aquafarm, salt pan, road, residential land, industry land, farming land, and fishing land) in or around the YRDNR from 1995 to 2014 were identified using spatial data sets derived from remote sensing imageries. The spatial stresses were simulated by considering disturbance due to land development activities and accessibility of disturbance using a geographic information system based model. The stresses were then used to identify the impacted area by land development (IALD). The results indicated that main increasing land development types in the study area from 1995 to 2014 were salt pan and construction land. The 98.2% of expanded land development area and 93.7% of increased pump number showed a good control of reserve function zone on land development spread. The spatial stress values and percentages of IALD increased from 1995 to 2014, and IALD percentage exceeded 50% for both parts of YRDNR in 2014. The results of this study also provided the information that detailed planning of the YRDNR (2014-2020) could decrease the spatial stress and IALD percentage of the whole YRDNR on the condition that the area of land development activities increased by 24.4 km2 from 2014 to 2020. Effective measures should be taken to protect such areas from being further disturbed in order to achieve the goal of a more effective conservation of the YRDNR, and attention should be paid to the disordered land development activities in or around the natural reserves.