DOES RECOMBINATION CONSTRAIN NEUTRAL DIVERGENCE AMONG BACTERIAL TAXA?

A coalescence model for predicting the fate of neutral divergence among closely related taxa distinguishable as separate DNA sequence clusters is presented here. The model simulates iteratively the positive feedback between sequence divergence and sexual isolation among taxa, where increases in sequence divergence result in reduced recombination, and reduced recombination results in increased sequence divergence. Iteration of this feedback is continued until sequence divergence either converges on a steady state or reaches a runaway process. The eventual outcome of sequence divergence was shown to depend on four estimable population-genetic parameters: the expected intrataxon sequence diversity, the baseline rate of intertaxon recombination, the sensitivity of the recombination rate to sequence divergence, and the neutral mutation rate. The model can be used to determine whether neutral divergence among actual taxa is destined to stop at an equilibrium level, or whether neutral divergence will reach a runaway process. Application of the model to the group of taxa containing Bacillus subtilis and its closest relatives showed these taxa to be on a trajectory of unbounded neutral divergence from one another. © 1995 The Society for the Study of Evolution.