| Literature DB >> 28593120 |
Jennifer C Gander1, Xuemei Sui2, James R Hébert3,4, Carl J Lavie5, Linda J Hazlett3, Bo Cai3, Steven N Blair2.
Abstract
The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was developed to quantify a patient's coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Non-exercise estimated CRF (e-CRF) may provide a clinically practical method for describing cardiorespiratory fitness. We computed e-CRF and tested its association with the FRS and CHD. Male participants (n = 29,854) in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) who completed a baseline examination between 1979-2002 were followed for 12 years to determine incident CHD defined by self-report of myocardial infarction, revascularization, or CHD mortality. e-CRF was defined from a 7-item scale and categorized using age-specific tertiles. Multivariable survival analysis determined associations between FRS, e-CRF, and CHD. Interaction between e-CRF and FRS was tested by stratified analysis by 'low' and 'moderate or high' 10-year CHD risk. Men with high e-CRF were significantly (p-value < 0.0001) younger, and less likely to be smokers, compared to men with low e-CRF. Multivariable survival analysis reported men with high e-CRF were 29% (HR = 0.71; 95% 0.56, 0.88) less likely to experience a CHD event compared to men with low e-CRF. Stratified analyses showed men with 'low' 10-year FRS predicted CHD risk and high e-CRF had a 28% (HR = 0.72; 95% CI 0.57, 0.91) lower CHD-mortality risk compared to men with low e-CRF, no association was found in this group and men with moderate e-CRF. Men who were more fit had a decreased risk for CHD compared to men in the lowest third of fitness. Estimated CRF may add clinical value to the FRS and help clinicians better predict long-term CHD risk.Entities:
Keywords: CHD, coronary heart disease; CRF, cardiorespiratory fitness; Cardiorespiratory fitness; Cardiovascular disease; Chronic disease; Exercise capacity; Framingham risk score; Men; Risk; e-CRF, estimated cardiorespiratory fitness
Year: 2017 PMID: 28593120 PMCID: PMC5447395 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2017.05.008
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Prev Med Rep ISSN: 2211-3355
Fig. 1Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study participants flow diagram. FRS, Framingham Risk score; CHD, coronary heart disease; HR, heart rate.
Demographics of participants stratified by estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (e-CRF).
| Risk factor | Total Population | Low | Middle | High | Cochran-Armitage Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ( | ( | ( | ( | ||
| Number of CHD events (%) | 499 (1.7) | 174 (1.8) | 182 (1.8) | 143 1.4) | 0.08 |
| Mean (SD) age, y | 44.7 (8.6) | 49.7 (8.8) | 46.8 (8.6) | 42.1 (8.4) | < 0.0001 |
| Age, range (years) | 30–74 | 30–74 | 30–74 | 30–70 | |
| Moderate or high 10-year CHD risk | 2.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | < 0.0001 |
| SBP, mean (SD) | 120.7 (12.9) | 124.5 (13.1) | 120.1 (12.2) | 117.5 (12.5) | < 0.0001 |
| DBP, mean (SD) | 81.2 (9.4) | 84.7 (9.5) | 80.9 (8.9) | 78.1 (8.7) | < 0.0001 |
| Blood pressure, mm HG | |||||
| Optimal (SBP < 120, DBP < 80) | 28.8 | 16.6 | 29.4 | 40.4 | < 0.0001 |
| Normal (120 ≤ SBP < 130, 80 ≤ DBP < 85) | 31.8 | 29.2 | 33.7 | 32.6 | < 0.0001 |
| High normal (130 ≤ SBP < 140, 85 ≤ DBP < 90) | 16.0 | 18.6 | 16.1 | 13.2 | < 0.0001 |
| Stage I HTN (140 ≤ SBP < 160, 90 ≤ DBP < 100) | 18.7 | 26.9 | 17.4 | 11.9 | < 0.0001 |
| Stages II–IV HTN | 4.7 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | < 0.0001 |
| Total cholesterol, mg/dL, mean (SD) | 208.63 (39.739) | 216.197 (41.0532) | 216.197 (41.0532) | 199.578 (36.5252) | < 0.0001 |
| < 160 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 12.5 | < 0.0001 |
| 160–199 | 34.1 | 28.7 | 33.3 | 40.3 | < 0.0001 |
| 200–239 | 36.9 | 38.5 | 37.9 | 34.3 | < 0.0001 |
| 240–279 | 15.3 | 19.6 | 15.7 | 10.6 | < 0.0001 |
| ≥ 280 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.3 | < 0.0001 |
| HDL-C, mg/dL, mean (SD) | 46.1 (12.1) | 42.0 (10.7) | 45.9 (11.5) | 50.4 (12.6) | < 0.0001 |
| < 35 | 15.6 | 24.8 | 14.2 | 7.9 | < 0.0001 |
| 35–44 | 34.1 | 39.9 | 36.0 | 26.5 | < 0.0001 |
| 45–49 | 15.6 | 13.8 | 16.7 | 16.2 | < 0.0001 |
| 50–59 | 21.4 | 15.1 | 21.4 | 27.7 | < 0.0001 |
| ≥ 60 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 21.7 | < 0.0001 |
| Diabetes | 1.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | < 0.0001 |
| Current smoker | 16.6 | 24.4 | 17.1 | 8.1 | < 0.0001 |
Abbreviations: DBP, diastolic blood pressure; e-CRF, estimated cardiorespiratory fitness; HDL-C, high density lipoprotein- cholesterol; SBP, systolic blood pressure.
Categorization for blood pressure, total cholesterol, and HDL-C were based on the 1998 Framingham Risk Score classification (Wilson et al., 1998).
Adjusted survival risks for coronary heart disease (CHD) events by estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (e-CRF) and 10-year CHD risk group.
| N | Number of deaths | Death rate | HR | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated CRF | |||||
| Low | 9950 | 174 | 31.93 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Moderate | 9953 | 182 | 18.90 | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| High | 9951 | 143 | 10.31 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| < 0.001 | 0.003 | ||||
| 10-year CHD risk | |||||
| Low | 29,241 | 447 | 18.34 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Moderate or high | 613 | 52 | 102.58 | 5.59 | 5.25 |
Abbreviations: CHD, coronary heart disease; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Deaths per 10,000 person-years of follow-up adjusted for examination year.
Adjusted for examination year.
Further adjusted e-CRF for 10-year CHD risk or 10-year CHD risk for e-CRF.
Fig. 2Multivariable adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals for estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (e-CRF) and coronary heart disease (CHD) events among population subsets.
Fig. 3Adjusted survival analysis of the association between estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (e-CRF) and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD); low e-CRF represented the reference group.
Fig. 4Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve comparing the predictive ability of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) point summation (Model A) compared to the Framingham Risk Score point summation and estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (e-CRF) (Model B).