Analyzing the capacity of the Daphnia magna and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata bioavailability models to predict chronic zinc toxicity at high pH and low calcium concentrations and formulation of a generalized bioavailability model for D. magna.

Risk assessment in the European Union implements Zn bioavailability models to derive predicted-no-effect concentrations for Zn. These models are validated within certain boundaries (i.e., pH ≤ 8 and Ca concentrations ≥ 5mg/L), but a substantial fraction of the European surface waters falls outside these boundaries. Therefore, we evaluated whether the chronic Zn biotic ligand model (BLM) for Daphnia magna and the chronic bioavailability model for Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata could be extrapolated to pH > 8 and Ca concentrations < 5 mg/L. Results from D. magna experiments suggested that the BLM is not able to reflect the pH effect over a broad pH range (5.5-8.5). In addition, because of Ca deficiency of D. magna in the soft water tests, we cannot conclude whether the BLM is applicable below its Ca boundary. Results for P. subcapitata experiments showed that the bioavailability model can accurately predict Zn toxicity for Ca concentrations down to 0.8 mg/L and pH values up to 8.5. Because the chronic Zn BLM for D. magna could not be extrapolated beyond its validity boundaries for pH, a generalized bioavailability model (gBAM) was developed. Of 4 gBAMs developed, we recommend the use of gBAM-D, which combines a log-linear relation between the 21-d median effective concentrations (expressed as free Zn2+ ion activity) and pH, with more conventional BLM-type competition constants for Na, Ca, and Mg. This model is a first step in further improving the accuracy of chronic toxicity predictions of Zn as a function of water chemistry, which can decrease the uncertainty in implementing the bioavailability-based predicted-no-effect concentration in the risk assessment of high-pH and low-Ca concentration regions in Europe. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2781-2798.