Risk factors to predict the development of chronic kidney disease in patients with lupus nephritis.

Objectives We analyzed the clinical follow-up results of 88 lupus nephritis patients to find prognostic factors for the development of chronic kidney disease in ethnically homogeneous Korean patients with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis. Methods Sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory, and treatment-related data at the time of kidney biopsy and during follow-up were obtained. Renal biopsy specimens were reclassified according to the International Society of Pathology/Renal Pathology Society classification, separately, by two renal pathologists blinded to the previous classification. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model to identify independent risk factors for chronic kidney disease in lupus nephritis patients. Results Eighteen of 88 patients (20.5%) developed chronic kidney disease during a mean follow-up of 47.6 months (range: 12-96 months). Patients who developed chronic kidney disease were older at onset of lupus nephritis, had less education, and were more likely to have hypertension; they had lower serum albumin levels, lower platelet levels, higher serum creatinine levels, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher chronicity index, and lower frequency of anti-ribosomal P antibodies, and they were less likely to be in complete remission in the first year. In stepwise multivariable analyses, hypertension, lower glomerular filtration rate, and failure to achieve complete remission in the first year of treatment were significant predictors of the development of chronic kidney disease in lupus nephritis patients. Conclusions These findings suggest that patients with hypertension and decreased kidney function at the onset of lupus nephritis and showing a poor response to immunosuppressive drugs in the first year should be monitored carefully and managed aggressively to avoid deterioration of kidney function.