Is vertical transmission sufficient to maintain Junin virus in nature?

The quantitative contribution of vertical transmission to the prevalence rate of Junin virus infection in subsequent generations of its natural reservoir, Calomys musculinus, was analysed. Data on mortality and reproduction of C. musculinus infected at birth with a wild strain of Junin virus were used to estimate the infection-dependent relative survival rate (beta = 0.4849) and relative fertility of the infected host (alpha = 0.2088). Prevalence rates of infection, obtained by mathematical simulation in optimal conditions of vertical transfer, dropped steadily to zero in a few generations. Vertical transmission was found to be insufficient to overcome the effect of highly depressed survival and fertility of the infected host and maintain a stabilized prevalence of Junin virus infection in successive generations; this suggested that viral maintenance is mainly dependent upon horizontal transmission.